The assumptions are based on Fraunhofer (PDF), but recalculated with only 600 kWh/kW per year and different CAPEX values.
| Assumption | 300 €/kWp | 500 €/kWp | 700 €/kWp |
|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity Generation (kWh/kW per year) | 600 | 600 | 600 |
| Real WACC (%) | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| Lifetime (years) | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| Efficiency Degradation (% per year) | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Fixed OPEX (€/kW per year) | 13.30 | 13.30 | 13.30 |
| Variable OPEX (€/kWh) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Discount Rate (real, %) | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| Capital Recovery Factor (CRF) | 0.05452 | 0.05452 | 0.05452 |
| LCOE (€/kWh) | 5.12 €Cent | 7.00 €Cent | 8.87 €Cent |
A CAPEX of 500 €/kWp should be a realistic scenario for utility-scale solar in Europe today.
Generally, 600 kWh per year per kWp [Specific Photovoltaic Power Output] can be achieved almost anywhere on Earth.
You can consider this as the worst possible LCOE scenario.
However, a key issue remains: in regions like Northern Scotland, you may generate 600+ kWh annually per kWp, but winter output can be 10-15 times lower than in summer.
🔋 Battery Storage LCOE Comparison
| Assumption | 50 €/kWh | 100 €/kWh | 150 €/kWh | 200 €/kWh |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fixed OPEX (€/kWh per year) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Real WACC (%) | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| Lifetime (years) | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| Cycles per Year | 300 | 300 | 300 | 300 |
| Efficiency (%) | 90 | 90 | 90 | 90 |
| LCOE (€/kWh stored) | 1.78 €Cent | 2.94 €Cent | 4.09 €Cent | 5.24 €Cent |
If solar output remains at 50 kWh/kWp or higher every month, you can roughly sum the LCOE of solar and battery storage to estimate your maximum electricity cost per kWh.
For example, in Northern Maine, there is no single month where 1 MW of solar produces less than 50 MWh.
The LCOE for 300 €/kWp solar + 50 €/kWh battery storage would be less than 6.90 €Cent/kWh.
For 700 €/kWp solar + 200 €/kWh battery storage, it would be less than 14.11 €Cent/kWh.
Interpreting These Values
- LCOE above 10 €Cent/kWh is bad.
- LCOE below 5 €Cent/kWh is good.
See the average electricity spot market price in Europe (2024).
Source: bfire123