I work at the World Climate Service and I have been looking at the current December La Niña signal for ERCOT in DJF. I put together the attached maps in case they are useful for anyone thinking about near term temperature and HDD risk in ERCOT.
Seasonal analog
- The first graphic is a seasonal analog based on past December La Niña events.
- It shows the percentage of years with above trend 2m temperatures for December through February.
- Much of ERCOT lies in a region that has historically favored above normal winter temperatures in this analog set.
Next 4 weeks: ECMWF guidance
Using ECMWF ensemble guidance, the two GIFs summarize HDD and 2m temperature probabilities for weeks 1 to 4:
- The 2m temperature probabilities indicate an elevated chance of above normal temperatures across ERCOT from week 1 through week 4.
- At one representative point in ERCOT, the probability of above normal temperatures in week 3 is approximately 63%.
- The HDD probability maps show a corresponding tilt toward below normal HDDs across ERCOT through the same 4 week period.
Taken together, the analog and ECMWF guidance suggest relatively limited cold risk for ERCOT through the next month, recognizing that this is one model and one analog framework.
If there are other views or analyses that you think would be useful to compare with this, I would be interested in the discussion.
Source: Excellent_Two2983