U.S. gasoline prices are falling nationwide with full regional coherence, indicating a broad and consistent move. The regime is new (1w) and stability is low, so transition risk is elevated despite the current downtrend. In the small historical sample of similar conditions (n=3), prices declined in the following month. The latest move appears to be a step-change lower, resetting the near-term baseline.
Key signals:
• Regime: Falling (1w)
• Coherence: 100% (nationwide lockstep)
• Stability: Mixed (moderate risk)
• Shape: Step down (baseline reset)
Source: OatyGoat