The first voting intention poll of the new year has been conducted by DemosAU for Capital Brief, and it offers the remarkable finding that One Nation has drawn level with the Coalition at 23% of the primary vote. The further surge to One Nation has also taken its toll on Labor, whose 29% is three points lower than in any published poll since the election.
Astonishing.
The Libs and One Nation are equal and One Nation is only 6 points behind the ALP.
DemosAU had Labor 51-49 ahead the week of the election last year. They don’t have a great track record
bundy554 on
Encouraging for Hastie that he is about even now and maybe leading with Albanese – March handover is looking good
Oomaschloom on
Polls this early are pointless, but pollsters gotta eat, and Albo needs them to dictate his policy positions, since he doesn’t have ideas and shit like that.
rolodex-ofhate on
DemosAU aren’t the best pollsters out there. Regardless, that is not great news for Sussan Ley’s future as opposition leader.
MentalMachine on
>… that One Nation has drawn level with the Coalition at 23% of the primary vote
I am having a really hard time believing this is true and uniform across the country.
Plenty of times PHON polls well then never reaches the same mark on election day, but there is always the first time.
HotPersimessage62 on
Albanese is likely finished if polls like this continue. A lot of Australians who were previously neutral on the Israel-Palestine issue are firmly now in favour of Israel considering the circumstances since December 14, and they’re upset with the government’s handling of that relationship and failure to tackle antisemitism.
A new tenant could be in the Lodge sooner rather than later if this becomes a trend across multiple pollsters.
Neo_Zeon94 on
Regardless of the accuracy of this poll, it feels inevitable that we will see more polling for a TPP between Labor and One Nation.
greatmodernmyths on
We will have to see what other polls say in the coming months, but anyone who thinks that a Reform style change is not possible in Australia needs to wake up to themselves ***now***. I’ve been banging on the drum that this momentum was coming to Australia and no-one has wanted to listen because people arrogantly think the country is somehow immune from this sort of thing.
joeldipops on
>The pollster further stirs the pot with a highly speculative Labor-versus-One Nation two-party result of 50-50, which applies Coalition preferences 83-17 in favour of One Nation based on the result in Hunter
Applying preference flows in one rural seat to the whole country is just not good practice…
10 Comments
From the article :
The first voting intention poll of the new year has been conducted by DemosAU for Capital Brief, and it offers the remarkable finding that One Nation has drawn level with the Coalition at 23% of the primary vote. The further surge to One Nation has also taken its toll on Labor, whose 29% is three points lower than in any published poll since the election.
Astonishing.
The Libs and One Nation are equal and One Nation is only 6 points behind the ALP.
Australia is no longer an outlier.
In Germany the AFD leads the polls :
https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/
In Britain Reform does :
https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/
Meloni is PM of Italy.
In France RN lead the polls :
https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/
There is also President Trump.
DemosAU had Labor 51-49 ahead the week of the election last year. They don’t have a great track record
Encouraging for Hastie that he is about even now and maybe leading with Albanese – March handover is looking good
Polls this early are pointless, but pollsters gotta eat, and Albo needs them to dictate his policy positions, since he doesn’t have ideas and shit like that.
DemosAU aren’t the best pollsters out there. Regardless, that is not great news for Sussan Ley’s future as opposition leader.
>… that One Nation has drawn level with the Coalition at 23% of the primary vote
I am having a really hard time believing this is true and uniform across the country.
Plenty of times PHON polls well then never reaches the same mark on election day, but there is always the first time.
Albanese is likely finished if polls like this continue. A lot of Australians who were previously neutral on the Israel-Palestine issue are firmly now in favour of Israel considering the circumstances since December 14, and they’re upset with the government’s handling of that relationship and failure to tackle antisemitism.
A new tenant could be in the Lodge sooner rather than later if this becomes a trend across multiple pollsters.
Regardless of the accuracy of this poll, it feels inevitable that we will see more polling for a TPP between Labor and One Nation.
We will have to see what other polls say in the coming months, but anyone who thinks that a Reform style change is not possible in Australia needs to wake up to themselves ***now***. I’ve been banging on the drum that this momentum was coming to Australia and no-one has wanted to listen because people arrogantly think the country is somehow immune from this sort of thing.
>The pollster further stirs the pot with a highly speculative Labor-versus-One Nation two-party result of 50-50, which applies Coalition preferences 83-17 in favour of One Nation based on the result in Hunter
Applying preference flows in one rural seat to the whole country is just not good practice…