Claims like this really need support from seat-level polls, not just journalists talking to people. While it’s *likely* to be correct given the national polling, it seems unsafe to assume that people who live in large regional cities like Tamworth or people who are travelling to the city for the country music festival are necessarily more likely to support One Nation without polling to support it.
Star_Wombat33 on
Speaking as someone who lived in Armidale through the election, I’m not sure I’d be surprised. People in New England either really love Joyce or hate him, but nobody was big on the ‘Nationals’. Remember, before Joyce it was independent. People in New England like Moylan and Anderson (course they do, great blokes), but that’s personality, not party loyalty.
A lot can happen before 2028, though.
HotPersimessage62 on
Barnaby Joyce is probably going to change his mind and contest New England with One Nation, and he’ll probably win. He wants an ego-driven victory over the Nationals and he can’t do that in the Senate.
FreakySpook on
>Â “There’s still a massive voter base in the middle of the country, and I think the Liberal Party has gone left of the middle. And I think One Nation are filling the void,” Mr Brown said.
It’s shit takes like this that makes me agree on One Nations education policy on teaching critical thinking in classrooms, but I think mine and Pauline’s ideas of the syllabus for that would be vastly different.
fluffy_101994 on
>They’ve taken our freedom, they’ve taken our rights
Someone tell Gary that we don’t live in Seppoland. Owning a gun isn’t a right, it’s a privilege.
Jumbledcode on
On their front page, ABC has this article billed as [“Why voters on both sides of politics find themselves drawn to One Nation”](https://i.imgur.com/atAaZIA.png), but the actual text exclusively consists of interviews with far-right voters who were either on the fringes of Coalition voters, or already One Nation supporters.
Looks like the ABC’s decided to jump onboard with Newscorp and lie to promote One Nation.
ausflora on
> the consistency of Pauline Hanson’s politics pulls people towards her party.
*‘So – I haven’t flip-flopped. I said… no originally, then I said yes, then I have said no and I’ve stuck to it.’*
ausflora on
> Jim Reed from Resolve says that while One Nation is likely to win extra Senate spots, the trend in the polls may not translate to seats in the House of Representatives. “Even if One Nation gets 30, 40 per cent primary vote in a particular electorate, they require the preferences of another party to get them over the line, to get them over 50 per cent. And there’s currently no indication that the major parties are going to preference them to get them over the line,” he said.
How does Jim Reed, *from Resolve*, not know how the voting system works? Voters preference candidates. Parties do not preference parties.
We also already know from recent elections that a majority of L/NP voters do preference ON above Labor.
Nippys4 on
Whats going on with this ABC glaze fest of one nation to add to the rest of the pile?
Petrichor_736 on
As an ex New England voter its always been a surprise to see the shift in the voting intentions away from a very reasonable and sensible, conservative MP Tony Windsor to bat shit crazy Barnaby “The bigger the hat the smaller the property” Joyce. The one who was seen to have a scour on his face everytime he was stuck at the top of the Moonbi Ranges while one of the blades for the Glen Innes Wind Farm was being transported up.
I spent 20 odd years in the region where you saw everyday racism to Indigenous locals and any brown skinned migrant and a strong dislike for anything mildly progressive. It was such a chore to try and navigate through this and the social and poiltical conservatism.
The National Party is a very strong identity for many people there. A lot of Barnaby’s diehard supporters are the hideaways who live in small blocks inbetween and around the small villages. They’ll be the ones who’ll follow him to ON, no questions asked. They love his maverick approach. I knew quite a few graziers who were quite anti Barnaby and who’ll stick to the Nationals as they won’t take to the fruity ON economic thought bubbles. Hard to say where the Nationals will put ON on their how to vote pamphlets, but I think there will be a substantial following to Barnaby and ON.
BigLittleMate on
Come the election I think every non-ONP/NAT party will preference ONP last which should keep them out, hopefully.
bundy554 on
Time for the Nationals to go it alone – they cannot afford to be in a Coalition with Ley as leader (and this is to protect the rest of the country btw as whatever you think of the Nationals being in a Coalition with the Liberals moderates their views). One Nation is its own beast that no one can tame
12 Comments
Claims like this really need support from seat-level polls, not just journalists talking to people. While it’s *likely* to be correct given the national polling, it seems unsafe to assume that people who live in large regional cities like Tamworth or people who are travelling to the city for the country music festival are necessarily more likely to support One Nation without polling to support it.
Speaking as someone who lived in Armidale through the election, I’m not sure I’d be surprised. People in New England either really love Joyce or hate him, but nobody was big on the ‘Nationals’. Remember, before Joyce it was independent. People in New England like Moylan and Anderson (course they do, great blokes), but that’s personality, not party loyalty.
A lot can happen before 2028, though.
Barnaby Joyce is probably going to change his mind and contest New England with One Nation, and he’ll probably win. He wants an ego-driven victory over the Nationals and he can’t do that in the Senate.
>Â “There’s still a massive voter base in the middle of the country, and I think the Liberal Party has gone left of the middle. And I think One Nation are filling the void,” Mr Brown said.
It’s shit takes like this that makes me agree on One Nations education policy on teaching critical thinking in classrooms, but I think mine and Pauline’s ideas of the syllabus for that would be vastly different.
>They’ve taken our freedom, they’ve taken our rights
Someone tell Gary that we don’t live in Seppoland. Owning a gun isn’t a right, it’s a privilege.
On their front page, ABC has this article billed as [“Why voters on both sides of politics find themselves drawn to One Nation”](https://i.imgur.com/atAaZIA.png), but the actual text exclusively consists of interviews with far-right voters who were either on the fringes of Coalition voters, or already One Nation supporters.
Looks like the ABC’s decided to jump onboard with Newscorp and lie to promote One Nation.
> the consistency of Pauline Hanson’s politics pulls people towards her party.
*‘So – I haven’t flip-flopped. I said… no originally, then I said yes, then I have said no and I’ve stuck to it.’*
> Jim Reed from Resolve says that while One Nation is likely to win extra Senate spots, the trend in the polls may not translate to seats in the House of Representatives. “Even if One Nation gets 30, 40 per cent primary vote in a particular electorate, they require the preferences of another party to get them over the line, to get them over 50 per cent. And there’s currently no indication that the major parties are going to preference them to get them over the line,” he said.
How does Jim Reed, *from Resolve*, not know how the voting system works? Voters preference candidates. Parties do not preference parties.
We also already know from recent elections that a majority of L/NP voters do preference ON above Labor.
Whats going on with this ABC glaze fest of one nation to add to the rest of the pile?
As an ex New England voter its always been a surprise to see the shift in the voting intentions away from a very reasonable and sensible, conservative MP Tony Windsor to bat shit crazy Barnaby “The bigger the hat the smaller the property” Joyce. The one who was seen to have a scour on his face everytime he was stuck at the top of the Moonbi Ranges while one of the blades for the Glen Innes Wind Farm was being transported up.
I spent 20 odd years in the region where you saw everyday racism to Indigenous locals and any brown skinned migrant and a strong dislike for anything mildly progressive. It was such a chore to try and navigate through this and the social and poiltical conservatism.
The National Party is a very strong identity for many people there. A lot of Barnaby’s diehard supporters are the hideaways who live in small blocks inbetween and around the small villages. They’ll be the ones who’ll follow him to ON, no questions asked. They love his maverick approach. I knew quite a few graziers who were quite anti Barnaby and who’ll stick to the Nationals as they won’t take to the fruity ON economic thought bubbles. Hard to say where the Nationals will put ON on their how to vote pamphlets, but I think there will be a substantial following to Barnaby and ON.
Come the election I think every non-ONP/NAT party will preference ONP last which should keep them out, hopefully.
Time for the Nationals to go it alone – they cannot afford to be in a Coalition with Ley as leader (and this is to protect the rest of the country btw as whatever you think of the Nationals being in a Coalition with the Liberals moderates their views). One Nation is its own beast that no one can tame