One Nation now wrenching votes from Labor as it overtakes Coalition: Resolve poll

[James Massola](safari-reader://www.smh.com.au/by/james-massola-hvf20)March 15, 2026 — 6:00pm

A rampant One Nation has begun taking support from the Albanese government, while the federal opposition’s primary vote has for the first time fallen behind Pauline Hanson’s crossbench party to hit a new record low.

The Coalition’s low primary vote stands in contrast to the reaction to the Liberal Party’s decision to dump Sussan Ley and switch to Angus Taylor. The new opposition leader recorded a net score of plus nine percentage points for his performance, compared to minus 17 percentage points for Albanese and a woeful minus 23 points for Ley in the final poll before she was forced out last month.

Anthony Albanese and Angus Taylor’s parties have both lost support as Pauline Hanson’s One Nation continues to rise. Aresna Villanueva

But the switch to Taylor has had little impact on the Coalition’s primary vote and Labor has gone backwards too. The ALP’s primary vote fell three percentage points to 29 per cent. The Coalition fell by one percentage point to 22 per cent, a record low, and One Nation’s primary vote rose by two percentage points to 24 per cent.

The poll, conducted by Resolve from March 9 to 14, was conducted against the backdrop of a sudden, sharp spike in fuel prices because of the war in Iran and rising cost-of-living pressures.

A whopping 50 per cent of voters indicated they would support a political party other than the major parties and that they would instead back One Nation, the Greens or independents, the first time this has occurred in the Resolve Political Monitor. It is another sign that voters’ support for the major political parties has cratered.

Labor’s support is at 29 per cent, dropping from a 34.6 per cent primary vote in the May election. It was last below 30 per cent in March 2025.

Last March, support for the Coalition was 37 per cent, which means that support for the federal opposition has dropped 15 percentage points to 22 per cent in a year. One Nation’s support was at 7 per cent last March and 6.4 per cent at the May election. The party had never polled a primary vote of over 10 per cent until September 2025, when it reached 12 per cent.

But just three months after former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce quit the party and joined One Nation, support for the party is now at 24 per cent – and it is higher than the official opposition for the first time.

The findings come as the Coalition, One Nation and independent Michelle Milthorpe gear up for the Farrer byelection, which will be held on May 9. The Liberal Party pre-selected Albury councillor and lawyer Raissa Butkowski as its candidate for the seat on Sunday, which had been held by former leader Sussan Ley for 25 years.

Support for the Greens and independents increased by 1 percentage point each, to 12 per cent and 8 per cent respectively.

This masthead has chosen not to publish the two-party-preferred vote between the Coalition and Labor because the huge surge in support for One Nation makes any preference vote potentially misleading.

Only a seat-by-seat two-candidate-preferred vote count could indicate which seats One Nation could potentially win, given the party’s support is typically concentrated in a smaller group of seats than that of major parties.

Resolve pollster Jim Reed said Taylor seemed to have started off well: his leadership rating equals Ley’s highs over the past year.

“But the challenge will be to sustain his competitiveness to turn it into votes, and already voters don’t seem to have seen much of him since he took over,” he said.

“Labor have lost vote share to minor parties and are sitting at their lowest point this term. This follows the interest rate rise and fuel shortages, which are the straw that broke the camel’s back for voters who have been struggling with the cost of living for four years now.

“This proves our thesis that One Nation are acting much like Reform in the UK, first taking vote share from the right and then the left. They are taking votes from those who feel ill-served, ignored or rejected by the major parties, and they’re voting for change, any change.”

Voters’ disillusionment with the major parties was discussed in focus groups conducted by Resolve. People offered comments such as “the major parties are just arguing in parliament about ISIS brides while the world’s burning!” and “now leaning towards One Nation because at least Pauline loves her country”.

And while voters’ appraisal of Taylor’s performance as leader was a huge improvement on his predecessor Ley, Albanese remains preferred prime minister – though by a much reduced margin.

Albanese led Ley 38-22 as preferred prime minister, with 40 per cent undecided. Albanese leads Taylor by just four percentage points, 35-31, with 34 per cent of voters undecided.

Voters’ No.1 policy priority remains keeping the cost of living low: 43 per cent of voters nominated this issue, including 11 per cent of people within that group specifically nominating house and rental prices and availability.

No other issue or topic, ranging from economic management through to energy and climate to immigration, recorded a score in double figures.

The poll had 1803 respondents and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 per cent