its been weeks into the US-Iran conflict, the market pricing still doesn't reflect two structural realities
firstly, the bypass pipeline capacity doesn't cover a Strait closure. The Strait moves 20 million barrels per day. Combined bypass capacity peaks at 5.5 million optimistically furthermore the Saudi pipeline terminates at Yanbu on the Red Sea, directly into the secondary chokepoint Houthi forces already control.
secondly, GCC sovereign wealth funds such as PIF, ADIA, Mubadala, ADQ, QIA have deployed over $110 billion in 2024 and are a structural prop beneath current US AI valuations. A sustained desalination escalation will hinder their ability to prop up the us AI industry
Full analysis including the math, ground war deployment picture, and falsifiability conditions linked here: psyduck100.substack.com/p/there-is-no-winning-version-of-this
Source: 50CalRound
4 Comments
Trump is destroying the United States of America to stop people from talking about Jeffrey Epstein. The sooner all Americans realize this, the sooner this madness ends.
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Service members facing deployment – lf you drop a Conscientious Objection packet now, regulations require your command to accomodate your beliefs.
Talk to a professional rights counselor now-it’s free, secure and anonymous.
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CCW advocates for the rights of conscience, opposes military conscription, and serves all conscientious objectors to war. http://centeronconscience.org
Doesn’t matter. Trump will declare we win and his supports will believe him. Then he’ll blame high gas prices on Biden and they’ll believe that, too.
The US could just land in Iran that’s around the straight. They don’t have to take all of Iran just a small section. Then they can just hold it until they get a favorable deal