Oil shocks have historically preceded recessions in the United States (and elsewhere). So it’s worth walking through why this war and its resulting supply-chain disruptions have significantly raised the odds of recession—and what that outcome would actually look like.
aquarain on
If you think you know the worst case outcome, you almost certainly lack imagination.
sheltonchoked on
Worst case?
Oil hits, and stays at $500 as small groups of IRGC troops continue to randomly attack tankers and oil infrastructure for the next 2 years.
The world economy collapses as the literal fuels are choked off. Taiwan runs out of oil and TSMC shuts down in the rolling blackouts. Ending the AI boom. A worldwide refugee crisis surges as countries with oil and electricity are overwhelmed with people from those without. Rationing and blackouts are common around the world.
China becomes even more influential as countries flock to solar, batteries and cheap EV’s to mitigate the effects of the oil price hike.
The USA midterms are swing enough for the DNC to take the house and senate, but not enough to remove Trump from office.
Russia flush with oil money Invades Europe. Trump refuses to support NATO, mostly because the Democrats want him to.
-JackBack- on
Worse case? Israel drops several nuclear bombs on Iran. Putin retaliates. Trump attacks Russia and Vice versa. China inherits an ecologically destroyed world.
TipAfraid4755 on
In the mid to long term this should supercharge countries into renewables.
Nobody in their right mind would continue to be held hostage to oil and gas
5 Comments
Oil shocks have historically preceded recessions in the United States (and elsewhere). So it’s worth walking through why this war and its resulting supply-chain disruptions have significantly raised the odds of recession—and what that outcome would actually look like.
If you think you know the worst case outcome, you almost certainly lack imagination.
Worst case?
Oil hits, and stays at $500 as small groups of IRGC troops continue to randomly attack tankers and oil infrastructure for the next 2 years.
The world economy collapses as the literal fuels are choked off. Taiwan runs out of oil and TSMC shuts down in the rolling blackouts. Ending the AI boom. A worldwide refugee crisis surges as countries with oil and electricity are overwhelmed with people from those without. Rationing and blackouts are common around the world.
China becomes even more influential as countries flock to solar, batteries and cheap EV’s to mitigate the effects of the oil price hike.
The USA midterms are swing enough for the DNC to take the house and senate, but not enough to remove Trump from office.
Russia flush with oil money Invades Europe. Trump refuses to support NATO, mostly because the Democrats want him to.
Worse case? Israel drops several nuclear bombs on Iran. Putin retaliates. Trump attacks Russia and Vice versa. China inherits an ecologically destroyed world.
In the mid to long term this should supercharge countries into renewables.
Nobody in their right mind would continue to be held hostage to oil and gas
So hopefully short term pain long term gain