Just a few months long special operation here. Nothing to see here.
CanadianGuy39 on
“At no stage did we think the regime would fall during the war,” the official said. “The assessments were that the regime’s collapse would come several months after the war. No one thought the public could take to the streets while under bombardment.”
Actually, Trump said that exact thing would happen.
lastpassonright on
Ah the gas lighting is starting.
AccomplishedSoft1350 on
More mission accomplished BS
dontrackmebro69 on
Ya sure…remember that 3 day special military operation
SilveryDeath on
> The official said the United States has intensified the pace of its strikes against Iran in recent days. He also said Israel assesses that U.S. President Donald Trump is moving toward taking control of Iran’s Kharg Island oil terminal, describing such a move as a potential “game changer” that could severely damage the regime’s finances.
This part is more interesting, since it means the Israelis think Trump is going to do this, which would require putting US boots on the ground.
keskival on
Even if it was like that, so their plan is to guarantee that the regime will never agree to a ceasefire or what?
Gloomy-Cover7669 on
Wishful thinking is still not a strategy.
Specialist-Garbage94 on
While I don’t agree with the attacks. This is what needs to happen to make the world safer and the elimination of the IRGC.
Terrible-Growth1652 on
Great so stop the war now so we can get to that faster.
Tobias---Funke on
They only had a month’s worth of water 8 months ago.
some-guy_00 on
But we are not at war
SnuffleWarrior on
Israeli official? Puhleeeeze
Capital-Control308 on
20 years in Afghanistan, 1 trillion dollars and we learned nothing
Outlaw_Josie_Snails on
Of course, without regime change, the ideology remains.
However, the leaders of the regime keep getting killed. Many of these members had institutional knowledge of terrorism/warfare. That slowly erodes.
The recent killing of Brigadier General Saeed Agha Jani (the drone program lead) and the near-total wipeout of the Basij leadership means the people who actually know how to coordinate complex, multi-front logistics are being replaced by younger, more “radical but less experienced” loyalists.
—-
| **The “Imminent Collapse” Argument** | **The “Dispersed Survival” Argument** |
| :— | :— |
| **Command Vacuum:** The loss of 16+ top leaders in three weeks has created “incoherence.” Decisions that used to take hours now take days. | **Decentralization:** The IRGC was built to survive decapitation. Power is dispersed across provinces; units can launch drones/missiles without a central “go” from Tehran. |
| **Internal Unrest:** With the internet blackouts and the reported deaths of thousands of protesters in early 2026, the domestic “fear barrier” is at a breaking point. | **Brutality as Glue:** The regime has shown it will kill thousands to stay in power. As long as the rank-and-file security forces don’t defect, the structure holds. |
| **Resource Depletion:** Operation “Roaring Lion” has reportedly destroyed 70% of Iran’s missile launcher array as of mid-March. | **Asymmetric Resilience:** They are still hitting targets as far as Diego Garcia, proving they can still project power even while “bleeding.” |
AaronFire on
So months of Trump saying they have 48 hours?
TheAmazing on
Teheran in 3 days type of vibes
pericles123 on
‘officials say’ sounds like some idiot in the current administration
one_user on
The mechanism for post-war regime collapse matters more than the timeline. Aerial bombardment alone has not produced regime collapse in any modern conflict – Serbia, Iraq, Libya all survived intensive air campaigns. The actual collapse mechanism is: economic stress → elite defection from the regime coalition → institutional fragmentation. That takes time to compound.
Iran’s specific structure makes this harder than Israeli officials are assuming. The IRGC isn’t just a military force – it’s a parallel economy with construction, logistics, and sanctions-busting revenue streams that give it financial autonomy from the formal state budget. Even if the government goes bankrupt, the IRGC has independent means to pay its own forces. That’s the part that doesn’t collapse on anyone’s 3-month timeline.
The more significant detail buried in this article is the Kharg Island angle – if the US is genuinely moving toward seizing Iran’s primary oil export terminal (handling ~90% of exports), that’s a fundamentally different operation than an air campaign. It requires holding fixed coastal territory against shore-based anti-ship missiles, Iranian naval harassment, and potentially years of occupation. It also gives the IRGC a rallying point for exactly the kind of nationalist resistance that keeps regimes together longer than intelligence assessments predict. Iraq 2003 planned for 3 months of post-war stabilization. Afghanistan was 20 years. The historical base rate on “months after the war” is not encouraging.
illini81 on
I’ve heard this joke before
IntelArtiGen on
I don’t know if it’ll happen but I also expect the same thing in the next year. They’ll need money to solve the economic problems Iran had (which led to the protests in january) and if they use this money to rebuild missiles most iranians probably won’t be so happy about that. But I guess they could also just re-do what they did in january to stop it…
Simplehoaxes on
Just like they are expecting a regime collapse in Cuba any day now….. since 1952 lol
Maus666 on
Sure, sure. Just in time for something worse (like the Taliban) to take it’s place.
Latter-Corner8977 on
Absolutely embarrassing. Do they think we don’t remember the shit Trump and Hegseth were saying a few weeks ago? Christ even a few days ago?
“I killed the last leader, I want to pick the new leader😡”
“I’m mad they didn’t let me pick the new leader 😡”
“I’m mad they didn’t let me pick the new leader so I’m gonna smash their sandcastle up for fun, because I can 😡”
Fucking toddler.
henriqueroberto on
This is gonna be the new “They’re 2 weeks away from a nuke argument. We’ve been waiting almost 70 years on Cuba and how has that worked out?
mindfu on
For those who were too young to remember the original Iraq war under Bush Senior from 90-91, they said the exact same thing about Saddam Hussein falling after the US left in 1991.
Saddamn of course stayed in power for over 10 years after, until we went in again and finally occupied Iraq.
So it could be months, sure…like 144 months. I.e. 12 years. After we invade again, in 120 months.
And then we could only have to occupy Iran for another… 120 months at least.
alien_farmer1 on
Months after, can be 5 months or 5000 months.
moosehunter87 on
Like Iraq?
Greener-dayz on
Redditors’ worst nightmare.
LapsedVerneGagKnee on
Please. The Guardian council will burn the entire Middle East to the ground and render the entire area uninhabitable before ceding power.
slartbangle on
Is this like one of those things where the monk punches you and you die three days later?
StrangerFew2424 on
Sure. We’ll just have to wait until after the midterms to see it..
Sgt_Fox on
Officials said they obliterated Iran’s nuclear sote. To say otherwise would be fake news.
Officials said it isn’t a war. To say otherwise would be fake news.
Officials sending 5,000 marines said there will be no boots on the ground. To say otherwise would be fake news.
Officials said the war is very complete. To say otherwise would be fake news.
Officials said Iran used a US missle to strike an Iranian elementary school. To say otherwise would be fake news.
thrive2day on
Things that won’t happen for $500
caliboy559 on
Yeah right just like Trump will leave office willingly
reilmb on
The regime was about to collapse before the bombing, many Iran experts were making parallels to 1978. The IRGC was completely divorced from the people and was corrupt and taking their money out of the country. So they really have only achieved a huge influx of money for Iran and Russia.
blighander on
If anything, this war has increased the strength of hardliners in Iran, they feel pretty vindicated after spending decades telling their people that the Americans and Israelis want to do nothing more than destroy their country. Boy, did we prove them wrong…
SexualMetawhore on
“We just have to commit enough war crimes, trust us… they’ll fall if we bomb enough civilian infrastructure”.
Dull-Efficiency9985 on
That makes sense. The January uprising came out of nowhere and no one is taking to the streets while bombs are flying. If the US can eliminate as much Iranian hard power as possible, weaken the efficacy of their beurocracies, throw their economy into turmoil, and destroy their heavy industry and oil production, it will be much harder for whoever eventually takes control to maintain legitimacy in the eyes of the people. Weaken the state as much as possible, precipitate further unrest, and let the intelligence agencies go to work.
A_Hint_of_Lemon on
Yeah, but It was probably going to collapse anyway due to the oncoming water crisis, so how did he war help?
You_are_the_Castle on
I’ll believe it when I see it, but this just seems like some more propaganda.
No_Conversation_9325 on
Ok, so can we have the time line? How much longer till the war end?
quaintquine on
You know I hate trump for making me have to defend the Iranian government. But I do hope that happens.
43 Comments
Just a few months long special operation here. Nothing to see here.
“At no stage did we think the regime would fall during the war,” the official said. “The assessments were that the regime’s collapse would come several months after the war. No one thought the public could take to the streets while under bombardment.”
Actually, Trump said that exact thing would happen.
Ah the gas lighting is starting.
More mission accomplished BS
Ya sure…remember that 3 day special military operation
> The official said the United States has intensified the pace of its strikes against Iran in recent days. He also said Israel assesses that U.S. President Donald Trump is moving toward taking control of Iran’s Kharg Island oil terminal, describing such a move as a potential “game changer” that could severely damage the regime’s finances.
This part is more interesting, since it means the Israelis think Trump is going to do this, which would require putting US boots on the ground.
Even if it was like that, so their plan is to guarantee that the regime will never agree to a ceasefire or what?
Wishful thinking is still not a strategy.
While I don’t agree with the attacks. This is what needs to happen to make the world safer and the elimination of the IRGC.
Great so stop the war now so we can get to that faster.
They only had a month’s worth of water 8 months ago.
But we are not at war
Israeli official? Puhleeeeze
20 years in Afghanistan, 1 trillion dollars and we learned nothing
Of course, without regime change, the ideology remains.
However, the leaders of the regime keep getting killed. Many of these members had institutional knowledge of terrorism/warfare. That slowly erodes.
The recent killing of Brigadier General Saeed Agha Jani (the drone program lead) and the near-total wipeout of the Basij leadership means the people who actually know how to coordinate complex, multi-front logistics are being replaced by younger, more “radical but less experienced” loyalists.
—-
| **The “Imminent Collapse” Argument** | **The “Dispersed Survival” Argument** |
| :— | :— |
| **Command Vacuum:** The loss of 16+ top leaders in three weeks has created “incoherence.” Decisions that used to take hours now take days. | **Decentralization:** The IRGC was built to survive decapitation. Power is dispersed across provinces; units can launch drones/missiles without a central “go” from Tehran. |
| **Internal Unrest:** With the internet blackouts and the reported deaths of thousands of protesters in early 2026, the domestic “fear barrier” is at a breaking point. | **Brutality as Glue:** The regime has shown it will kill thousands to stay in power. As long as the rank-and-file security forces don’t defect, the structure holds. |
| **Resource Depletion:** Operation “Roaring Lion” has reportedly destroyed 70% of Iran’s missile launcher array as of mid-March. | **Asymmetric Resilience:** They are still hitting targets as far as Diego Garcia, proving they can still project power even while “bleeding.” |
So months of Trump saying they have 48 hours?
Teheran in 3 days type of vibes
‘officials say’ sounds like some idiot in the current administration
The mechanism for post-war regime collapse matters more than the timeline. Aerial bombardment alone has not produced regime collapse in any modern conflict – Serbia, Iraq, Libya all survived intensive air campaigns. The actual collapse mechanism is: economic stress → elite defection from the regime coalition → institutional fragmentation. That takes time to compound.
Iran’s specific structure makes this harder than Israeli officials are assuming. The IRGC isn’t just a military force – it’s a parallel economy with construction, logistics, and sanctions-busting revenue streams that give it financial autonomy from the formal state budget. Even if the government goes bankrupt, the IRGC has independent means to pay its own forces. That’s the part that doesn’t collapse on anyone’s 3-month timeline.
The more significant detail buried in this article is the Kharg Island angle – if the US is genuinely moving toward seizing Iran’s primary oil export terminal (handling ~90% of exports), that’s a fundamentally different operation than an air campaign. It requires holding fixed coastal territory against shore-based anti-ship missiles, Iranian naval harassment, and potentially years of occupation. It also gives the IRGC a rallying point for exactly the kind of nationalist resistance that keeps regimes together longer than intelligence assessments predict. Iraq 2003 planned for 3 months of post-war stabilization. Afghanistan was 20 years. The historical base rate on “months after the war” is not encouraging.
I’ve heard this joke before
I don’t know if it’ll happen but I also expect the same thing in the next year. They’ll need money to solve the economic problems Iran had (which led to the protests in january) and if they use this money to rebuild missiles most iranians probably won’t be so happy about that. But I guess they could also just re-do what they did in january to stop it…
Just like they are expecting a regime collapse in Cuba any day now….. since 1952 lol
Sure, sure. Just in time for something worse (like the Taliban) to take it’s place.
Absolutely embarrassing. Do they think we don’t remember the shit Trump and Hegseth were saying a few weeks ago? Christ even a few days ago?
“I killed the last leader, I want to pick the new leader😡”
“I’m mad they didn’t let me pick the new leader 😡”
“I’m mad they didn’t let me pick the new leader so I’m gonna smash their sandcastle up for fun, because I can 😡”
Fucking toddler.
This is gonna be the new “They’re 2 weeks away from a nuke argument. We’ve been waiting almost 70 years on Cuba and how has that worked out?
For those who were too young to remember the original Iraq war under Bush Senior from 90-91, they said the exact same thing about Saddam Hussein falling after the US left in 1991.
Saddamn of course stayed in power for over 10 years after, until we went in again and finally occupied Iraq.
So it could be months, sure…like 144 months. I.e. 12 years. After we invade again, in 120 months.
And then we could only have to occupy Iran for another… 120 months at least.
Months after, can be 5 months or 5000 months.
Like Iraq?
Redditors’ worst nightmare.
Please. The Guardian council will burn the entire Middle East to the ground and render the entire area uninhabitable before ceding power.
Is this like one of those things where the monk punches you and you die three days later?
Sure. We’ll just have to wait until after the midterms to see it..
Officials said they obliterated Iran’s nuclear sote. To say otherwise would be fake news.
Officials said it isn’t a war. To say otherwise would be fake news.
Officials sending 5,000 marines said there will be no boots on the ground. To say otherwise would be fake news.
Officials said the war is very complete. To say otherwise would be fake news.
Officials said Iran used a US missle to strike an Iranian elementary school. To say otherwise would be fake news.
Things that won’t happen for $500
Yeah right just like Trump will leave office willingly
The regime was about to collapse before the bombing, many Iran experts were making parallels to 1978. The IRGC was completely divorced from the people and was corrupt and taking their money out of the country. So they really have only achieved a huge influx of money for Iran and Russia.
If anything, this war has increased the strength of hardliners in Iran, they feel pretty vindicated after spending decades telling their people that the Americans and Israelis want to do nothing more than destroy their country. Boy, did we prove them wrong…
“We just have to commit enough war crimes, trust us… they’ll fall if we bomb enough civilian infrastructure”.
That makes sense. The January uprising came out of nowhere and no one is taking to the streets while bombs are flying. If the US can eliminate as much Iranian hard power as possible, weaken the efficacy of their beurocracies, throw their economy into turmoil, and destroy their heavy industry and oil production, it will be much harder for whoever eventually takes control to maintain legitimacy in the eyes of the people. Weaken the state as much as possible, precipitate further unrest, and let the intelligence agencies go to work.
Yeah, but It was probably going to collapse anyway due to the oncoming water crisis, so how did he war help?
I’ll believe it when I see it, but this just seems like some more propaganda.
Ok, so can we have the time line? How much longer till the war end?
You know I hate trump for making me have to defend the Iranian government. But I do hope that happens.