The Iran war and its impact on the global energy market will keep headline U.S. inflation this year well above the Federal Reserve’s projections, possibly necessitating policy action, according to a key global policy group.
The $64k (or $39 trillion) question is, who is going to buy government debt at an interest rate below the inflation rate?
There is only one party that can do that, and that’s the Fed, bankrolled by their digital money printer. And that looks to me like Weirmar Republic economics.
I always multiply the government’s inflation number by 1.3 to get a “1980s” approximation. So, 2.7% becomes 3.51%. That would put 90 day bills near break-even.
So, if they’re using the current methodology to come up with their 4.2% estimate of inflation, that multiplied by 1.3 equals 5.46%.
They have to cut spending, raise taxes, or print. What a time to flush more money down on another Middle East war.
If they print, it’s time to stop calling that “borrowing” and characterizing that as “debt”. The definition of a sham is when the form (borrowing) doesn’t equal the substance (printing).
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The Iran war and its impact on the global energy market will keep headline U.S. inflation this year well above the Federal Reserve’s projections, possibly necessitating policy action, according to a key global policy group.
In its [periodic update](https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2026/03/oecd-economic-outlook-interim-report-march-2026_254a8d56/d4623013-en.pdf) of economic conditions, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development forecast all-items inflation in the U.S. to be at 4.2% for 2026.
The forecast is a sharp step up from the prior projection of 2.8%. Moreover, it is much higher than the 2.7%Â [Fed officials estimated](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/18/fed-interest-rate-decision-march-2026.html)Â when they updated their own forecasts last week.
Read more: [https://cnb.cx/4uQxtiW](https://cnb.cx/4uQxtiW)
The $64k (or $39 trillion) question is, who is going to buy government debt at an interest rate below the inflation rate?
There is only one party that can do that, and that’s the Fed, bankrolled by their digital money printer. And that looks to me like Weirmar Republic economics.
I always multiply the government’s inflation number by 1.3 to get a “1980s” approximation. So, 2.7% becomes 3.51%. That would put 90 day bills near break-even.
So, if they’re using the current methodology to come up with their 4.2% estimate of inflation, that multiplied by 1.3 equals 5.46%.
They have to cut spending, raise taxes, or print. What a time to flush more money down on another Middle East war.
If they print, it’s time to stop calling that “borrowing” and characterizing that as “debt”. The definition of a sham is when the form (borrowing) doesn’t equal the substance (printing).