The U.S. military conflict with Iran is quietly draining the American labor market, with Goldman Sachs estimating that the oil price shock triggered by the war will suppress payroll growth by roughly 10,000 jobs per month through the end of the year — a toll that will be felt most acutely in restaurants, hotels, and retail stores across the country.
In a research note published Thursday, Goldman economist Pierfrancesco Mei laid out a detailed framework for how higher energy prices translate into labor market pain — and the picture isn’t pretty.
As explained by the bank earlier in the week, its commodities strategists expect Brent crude to average $105 in March, spike to $115 in April, and then gradually retreat to $80 in the fourth quarter, assuming flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain severely disrupted for roughly six weeks. In an adverse scenario — one where the conflict deepens — Brent could peak as high as $140 a barrel, or $160 in a “severely adverse” scenario.
Read more: https://fortune.com/2026/03/26/trump-iran-war-oil-shock-jobs-goldman-sachs-gen-z/
Source: fortune
7 Comments
That shouldn’t be a problem, Republicans are planning to create roughly 10,000 jobs per month through the end of the year in the Middle East which will result in no net job losses.
https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-weighs-sending-another-10000-ground-troops-middle-east-wsj-reports-2026-03-27/
March 26 (Reuters) – The Pentagon is looking at sending up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the Middle East.
Noone seems to care anymore unfortunately.
Can’t lose jobs you were not creating in the first place
The U.S. seems like it’s speed running into destruction. I mean, we’re repeating the mistakes of Rome and the U.S.S.R. and it’s like no has read a history book.
US politicians are ready to burn the country to the ground to show allegiance to Israel. Baffling.
10,000 jobs a month so far
ngl 10k jobs/month sounds scary… but in context it’s not huge
US adds ~150–200k jobs in a normal month
so this is more like slowing growth, not job losses
classic oil shock effect
higher fuel → people spend less → service jobs get hit first
restaurants, travel, retail always take the hit
$100+ oil will definitely drag sentiment though
feels like a “soft slowdown” signal, not recession yet
also depends how long oil stays elevated
short spike = shrug it off
long disruption = bigger problem