no shit. They started hiding the numbers on the economy months ago. That’s not something you do when everything’s going swimmingly
Harteiga on
Paywalled but with a lot of those in charge of various reporting being replaced by the current administration as well as some reports not being published, this wouldn’t be surprising. Saying we are losing 20K per month might even be a conservative estimate. With the lack of trust in the data, it seems like we’ll need to rely more on personal experience than factual data for these things and I’ve heard a lot of bad stuff from people I know.
NoReserve7293 on
I can’t imagine this administration overstating job numbers. why, that would be disingenuous. Perhaps tRump is doing it for the good of the country. He’s just trying to get us all feeling good about the direction of the country. What’s wrong with lying if it’s for the good of the nation? (In Trumps demented mind) /s
Angedelanuit97 on
Impossible. Not the most transparent administration in the history of administrations!
martapap on
They are lying about the numbers and or just not saying anything. So these financial people are already building into their information a lower number for an estimate anyway,which may not be accurate but more accurate than what Trump will put out.
scrotalsmoothie on
Ooo, that’s a bingo!
originaljimeez on
“May be”?
PeachPython- on
If the Fed Chair is even hinting at this, that means the real numbers are probably way worse than they’ll ever publicly admit.
Initial-Toe-9512 on
Water is wet, what?!?
Alib668 on
The issue with them not publishing isnt going to help the administration. The reason is there is money to be made in having accurate forecasts. That means using the best estimates. When those forecasts dont match expectations because dodgy numbers were fed in people can back calculate the figures. Arbitrage then does the rest and the secret is out.
Long form
Once people back calculate the trends they can then start making better forecasts. Even if those private entities don’t publish the data the market will evolve and those that have worked it out will be better at pricing risk than those that didn’t. So everyone starts copying those who did it right. Even if the dunno why they are right “it makes money shut up”. At which point the market is able to see the trends again…you bought yourself a few months congratulations! It gets worse for hiding. Over time someone somewhere will realise they can sell the data for more than their forecast value add and we end up with an independent source of data…it may not be perfect but the point is as an admin you cant hide. The data is obvious its counting people in jons, its not some special sauce formula that requires leaps of thought like relativity. If there is money to be made you can pay a guy to go count stuff and if a bank has billions resting on that count, they will dam well pay……all that happens is bank fees go up to cover a cost and we get duplicates of the work rather than the cheap option of one source of truth done once. Hell look at polling industry as a model between private polls and published polls people make money assessing who was good
10 Comments
no shit. They started hiding the numbers on the economy months ago. That’s not something you do when everything’s going swimmingly
Paywalled but with a lot of those in charge of various reporting being replaced by the current administration as well as some reports not being published, this wouldn’t be surprising. Saying we are losing 20K per month might even be a conservative estimate. With the lack of trust in the data, it seems like we’ll need to rely more on personal experience than factual data for these things and I’ve heard a lot of bad stuff from people I know.
I can’t imagine this administration overstating job numbers. why, that would be disingenuous. Perhaps tRump is doing it for the good of the country. He’s just trying to get us all feeling good about the direction of the country. What’s wrong with lying if it’s for the good of the nation? (In Trumps demented mind) /s
Impossible. Not the most transparent administration in the history of administrations!
They are lying about the numbers and or just not saying anything. So these financial people are already building into their information a lower number for an estimate anyway,which may not be accurate but more accurate than what Trump will put out.
Ooo, that’s a bingo!
“May be”?
If the Fed Chair is even hinting at this, that means the real numbers are probably way worse than they’ll ever publicly admit.
Water is wet, what?!?
The issue with them not publishing isnt going to help the administration. The reason is there is money to be made in having accurate forecasts. That means using the best estimates. When those forecasts dont match expectations because dodgy numbers were fed in people can back calculate the figures. Arbitrage then does the rest and the secret is out.
Long form
Once people back calculate the trends they can then start making better forecasts. Even if those private entities don’t publish the data the market will evolve and those that have worked it out will be better at pricing risk than those that didn’t. So everyone starts copying those who did it right. Even if the dunno why they are right “it makes money shut up”. At which point the market is able to see the trends again…you bought yourself a few months congratulations! It gets worse for hiding. Over time someone somewhere will realise they can sell the data for more than their forecast value add and we end up with an independent source of data…it may not be perfect but the point is as an admin you cant hide. The data is obvious its counting people in jons, its not some special sauce formula that requires leaps of thought like relativity. If there is money to be made you can pay a guy to go count stuff and if a bank has billions resting on that count, they will dam well pay……all that happens is bank fees go up to cover a cost and we get duplicates of the work rather than the cheap option of one source of truth done once. Hell look at polling industry as a model between private polls and published polls people make money assessing who was good