Despite fallout from the expenses scandal and Bondi, Labor still holds a 54–46 lead in Resolve, but Anthony Albanese’s ratings have slumped. Newspoll analysis has One Nation’s surge concentrated with voters of lower educational attainment.
A special national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted after the Bondi attacks on December 17–20 from a sample of 1,010 (well below the normal Resolve sample size of 1,800), gave Labor a 54–46 lead by respondent preferences, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the regular early December Resolve poll.
Primary votes were 32% Labor (down three), 28% Coalition (up two), 16% One Nation (up two), 12% Greens (up one), 8% independents (steady) and 4% others (down two). By 2025 election preference flows, Labor would have led by under 54–46, about a 2.5-point gain for the Coalition.
Albanese’s net approval slumped 15 points to -9, the lowest it has been in this poll since the May election, with 49% giving him a poor rating and 40% a good rating. Sussan Ley’s net approval also fell seven points to -4. Albanese led Ley as preferred PM by 38–30 (41–26 in early December).
There had been stories about the expenses scandal in the week before the Bondi attacks, and the Morgan poll below had Labor dropping on the expenses scandal. It’s not clear whether Albanese and Labor were damaged by the expenses, Bondi or both.
By 46–29, respondents in Resolve thought the federal government’s response to Bondi was weak rather than strong. By 37–30, they thought social cohesion was good rather than poor.
By 72–9, respondents thought there had been a rise in racism in Australia as a result of the Israel-Gaza conflict (69–12 when this question was last asked in January 2025). By 55–13, they thought there had been more antisemitism than Islamophobia in recent months (54–9 last January).
On gun laws, 76% wanted them to be toughened, 10% kept as they are and just 6% thought they should be relaxed. Four of five proposals for toughening gun laws had over 80% support, with “restrict gun licences to Australian citizens” the exception at 72% support.
Asked to pick two priorities for the government, 49% selected preventing terrorism, 45% tackling crime generally, 35% restricting access to guns, 33% preventing extremism, 29% tackling antisemitism and 26% tackling hate speech.
By 66–9, respondents thought Australia needs stronger laws to ban hate speech on the basis of religion and faith. The most popular proposal for tackling antisemitism was tougher immigration screening to identify antisemitic views (76–7 support). Holding a Royal Commission was at 48–17 support.
In the small New South Wales subsample of around 300 voters, Labor Premier Chris Minns’ net likeability jumped eight points since November to +22.
In a post-Bondi YouGov national poll that was conducted December 15–22 from a sample of 1,509, 44% wanted personal guns like those used in the attacks made illegal, 48% wanted tighter gun laws and just 8% wanted no change to gun laws. By 81–19, respondents thought Ahmed al Ahmed, who disarmed one of the Bondi gunmen, deserved to be made Australian of the Year.
Labor slides in Morgan poll after expenses scandal
Morgan released its November 17 to December 14 national poll broken into two periods. For the first three weeks, November 17 to December 7, Labor had a 56–44 lead, similar to the 56.5–43.5 Labor lead in October to November.
For the last week, December 8–14 with a one-week sample of 1,574, Labor’s lead dropped to 54.5–45.5 by respondent preferences, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition from weeks 1–3.
Primary votes were 30.5% Labor (down 2.5), 27.5% Coalition (up 1.5), 17% One Nation (up two), 13% Greens (down 0.5) and 12% for all Others (down 0.5). By 2025 election preference flows, Labor would have led by about 53–47, the lowest Labor lead by this measure of any poll since the last election.
The Redbridge poll suggested Labor had not been damaged by the expenses claims, but this poll contradicts that. All interviews were conducted before the Bondi attacks.
The full four-week poll had a sample of 4,862. In state and demographic breakdowns, the Coalition regained the lead in Queensland by 50.5–49.5, but Labor led in the other five states. Labor led by 58.5–41.5 with women and 52.5–47.5 with men.
Labor led by 69.5–30.5 with those aged 18–34 and by 58.5–41.5 with those aged 35–49. The Coalition made its biggest gains with those aged 50–64 to lead by 50.5–49.5, a 4.5-point swing to the Coalition. The Coalition led with those aged 65 and over by 54.5–45.5. One Nation’s highest support was with those aged 50–64 (20.5%) and they had 22% in Queensland.
Newspoll aggregate data for September to November
The Australian released aggregate data for the three national Newspolls conducted between September 29 and November 20 on December 26. The total sample size was 3,774, with Labor holding an overall 57–43 lead. These polls were taken before the expenses scandal and Bondi.
Labor led by 58–42 in NSW, (a two-point gain for the Coalition since the September quarter Newspoll aggregate according to The Poll Bludger), 60–40 in Victoria (a two-point gain for Labor), 52–48 in Queensland (a one-point gain for Labor), 56–44 in Western Australia (a two-point gain for Labor) and 58–42 in South Australia (a three-point gain for Labor).
Among those without a tertiary education, primary votes were 30% Labor (down two), 26% Coalition (down six), 20% One Nation (up nine) and 14% Greens (up one), for an unchanged 53–47 Labor lead. With TAFE educated, primary votes were 35% Labor (down two), 24% Coalition (down one), 19% One Nation (up seven) and 9% Greens (steady) for a 54–46 Labor lead (a three-point gain for the Coalition).
However, with the university educated, primary votes were 41% Labor (up three), 26% Coalition (down three), 13% Greens (down two) and 6% One Nation (up one), for a 62–38 Labor lead (a two-point gain for Labor).
Resolve likeabilty poll
Resolve’s poll of net likeability of federal politicians was taken in early December, before Bondi and the expenses scandal. Only two politicians had negative net likeability: Lidia Thorpe (-12) and Barnaby Joyce (-4).
Net likeability of prominent Labor politicians were Chris Bowen (net zero), Murray Watt (+4), Jim Chalmers (+5), Richard Marles (+6), Tony Burke (+7), Tanya Plibersek (+9) and Penny Wong (+11). David Pocock and Jacqui Lambie were on top with both at +15. Greens leader Larissa Waters was at +5.
One Nation leader Pauline Hanson’s net likeability increased 16 points since December 2024 to +3, but was down five points since November. Joyce’s net likeability was up 18 since December 2024 and up four since November. Thorpe’s net likeability surged 29 points since December 2024.
Only one politician suffered a fall in net likeability since December 2024: Liberal Jacinta Price was down five points to +3.
espersooty on
Not likely to effect the re-election of labor for a 3rd term even 4th term.
Coalition and one nation just be pulling in the racists and other clowns so that doesn’t matter as much, They still aren’t in a position to really challenge anything.
Harclubs on
54-46 the ALP’s way is not a hit.
This poll has been discussed ad nauseum for the past 3 weeks. The reason that the ALP isn’t budging on the RC question is that the voting public don’t rate it as an issue, as the polls have demonstrated.
The21stPM on
This will be temporary. Once the media realises more and more people aren’t buying their BS, and more things happen as time goes on, they will give up and move on.
Maro1947 on
People who are getting their knickers in a twist over the RC were only floating Labor voters
Shockanabi on
>By 46–29, respondents in Resolve thought the federal government’s response to Bondi was weak rather than strong. By 37–30, they thought social cohesion was good rather than poor.
>By 72–9, respondents thought there had been a rise in racism in Australia as a result of the Israel-Gaza conflict (69–12 when this question was last asked in January 2025). By 55–13, they thought there had been more antisemitism than Islamophobia in recent months (54–9 last January).
Very interesting that in the real world, Australians think antisemitism is a serious issue that has been heightened by the I/P, and we should do something about it.
According to Reddit, 99% of “antisemitism” isn’t real, and when it is it’s just a natural response to Israel’s actions, and the only acceptable measure to reduce antisemitism is to be harder on Israel.
Agitated-Fee3598 on
Lmao someone post the trump gif. All of our poorly educated love Hanson now.
StoicBoffin on
So after three weeks of non-stop repetitious screamy articles about Bondi from the Murdoch sewer, the needle has hardly budged. If we ever needed a demonstration about how toothless Rupert’s become, this is it.
47737373 on
And? What about the Liberal Party team and the hit they’ve taken? For shamelessly politicising the Bondi tragedy and calling for a Royal Commision. Shame shame shame. Shame on everyone who has jumped on the Royal Commission bandwagon.
Only Labor can show leadership in times of turmoil and I stand with Albo.
mrp61 on
I do think preferences might surprise people next election.
One third of one nation voters preferenced labor in the last election but the latest one nation surge seems to be from disheartened liberal voters.
Rizza1122 on
“Among those without a tertiary education, primary votes were 30% Labor (down two), 26% Coalition (down six), 20% One Nation (up nine) and 14% Greens (up one), for an unchanged 53–47 Labor lead. With TAFE educated, primary votes were 35% Labor (down two), 24% Coalition (down one), 19% One Nation (up seven) and 9% Greens (steady) for a 54–46 Labor lead (a three-point gain for the Coalition).
However, with the university educated, primary votes were 41% Labor (up three), 26% Coalition (down three), 13% Greens (down two) and 6% One Nation (up one), for a 62–38 Labor lead (a two-point gain)”
“Dumb cunts eat up coordinated outrage campaign, people who read books didnt”
Yeah thanks for reporting that at the very end of the article.
Mikes005 on
“Has Labor opinion polls taken a hit over the bondi attack? People so no but our editors say yes. More at 6.”
psycho_goji on
So after the entire media apparatus in this country exhausted all efforts to prop up Josh Frydenberg and label Albanese the next Phillipe Pétain, Labor only dropped 1 point in the 2PP?
ddgk2_ on
So Sussie and the Banshees and Stokes/Murdoch/9 media can continue their search for relevance while the adults go about their business. However the adults should remember to keep their snouts out of the trough. The sad fact is Bondi knocked travel rorts off the front page.
teambob on
This is within the margin of error. Albo may or may not have taken a hit. He may have taken a hit more than 1%. From this result we can’t tell if albo has taken a hit
Brackish_Ameoba on
Meh. Two and a half years till the election. Albo has never governed by being led by poll, and he won’t start now. He knows better than anyone you can poll terribly mid-term and still win a landslide election.
lazy-bruce on
I’ve said it before, the RC issue, legitimate or not will be gone in a matter of week, its coming across more as a partisan issue than any care (to me)
The LNP will belatedly turn to culture war in about 15 days.
Temporary-Habit-2528 on
This was pre-Christmas, why are you re-upping it?
the-ahh-guy on
Still waiting for the New Year’s polls to come through. Those will tell us how well this prolonged campaign has been for the Libs.
ziddyzoo on
“Prime Minister refuses to taint alleged killer’s jury pool by running Royal Commission concurrently with criminal trial, and polls move by 1%”
The coalition will absolutely crow though about the despicable personal attacks on Albanese having worked. A tactic borrowed directly from the get-Corbyn playbook.
spaghettibolegdeh on
What leader wouldn’t take a hit at the polls over this?
You have two large demographics fighting over this situation. Side with one and the other tanks in the polls.
21 Comments
Despite fallout from the expenses scandal and Bondi, Labor still holds a 54–46 lead in Resolve, but Anthony Albanese’s ratings have slumped. Newspoll analysis has One Nation’s surge concentrated with voters of lower educational attainment.
A special national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted after the Bondi attacks on December 17–20 from a sample of 1,010 (well below the normal Resolve sample size of 1,800), gave Labor a 54–46 lead by respondent preferences, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the regular early December Resolve poll.
Primary votes were 32% Labor (down three), 28% Coalition (up two), 16% One Nation (up two), 12% Greens (up one), 8% independents (steady) and 4% others (down two). By 2025 election preference flows, Labor would have led by under 54–46, about a 2.5-point gain for the Coalition.
Albanese’s net approval slumped 15 points to -9, the lowest it has been in this poll since the May election, with 49% giving him a poor rating and 40% a good rating. Sussan Ley’s net approval also fell seven points to -4. Albanese led Ley as preferred PM by 38–30 (41–26 in early December).
There had been stories about the expenses scandal in the week before the Bondi attacks, and the Morgan poll below had Labor dropping on the expenses scandal. It’s not clear whether Albanese and Labor were damaged by the expenses, Bondi or both.
By 46–29, respondents in Resolve thought the federal government’s response to Bondi was weak rather than strong. By 37–30, they thought social cohesion was good rather than poor.
By 72–9, respondents thought there had been a rise in racism in Australia as a result of the Israel-Gaza conflict (69–12 when this question was last asked in January 2025). By 55–13, they thought there had been more antisemitism than Islamophobia in recent months (54–9 last January).
On gun laws, 76% wanted them to be toughened, 10% kept as they are and just 6% thought they should be relaxed. Four of five proposals for toughening gun laws had over 80% support, with “restrict gun licences to Australian citizens” the exception at 72% support.
Asked to pick two priorities for the government, 49% selected preventing terrorism, 45% tackling crime generally, 35% restricting access to guns, 33% preventing extremism, 29% tackling antisemitism and 26% tackling hate speech.
By 66–9, respondents thought Australia needs stronger laws to ban hate speech on the basis of religion and faith. The most popular proposal for tackling antisemitism was tougher immigration screening to identify antisemitic views (76–7 support). Holding a Royal Commission was at 48–17 support.
In the small New South Wales subsample of around 300 voters, Labor Premier Chris Minns’ net likeability jumped eight points since November to +22.
In a post-Bondi YouGov national poll that was conducted December 15–22 from a sample of 1,509, 44% wanted personal guns like those used in the attacks made illegal, 48% wanted tighter gun laws and just 8% wanted no change to gun laws. By 81–19, respondents thought Ahmed al Ahmed, who disarmed one of the Bondi gunmen, deserved to be made Australian of the Year.
Labor slides in Morgan poll after expenses scandal
Morgan released its November 17 to December 14 national poll broken into two periods. For the first three weeks, November 17 to December 7, Labor had a 56–44 lead, similar to the 56.5–43.5 Labor lead in October to November.
For the last week, December 8–14 with a one-week sample of 1,574, Labor’s lead dropped to 54.5–45.5 by respondent preferences, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition from weeks 1–3.
Primary votes were 30.5% Labor (down 2.5), 27.5% Coalition (up 1.5), 17% One Nation (up two), 13% Greens (down 0.5) and 12% for all Others (down 0.5). By 2025 election preference flows, Labor would have led by about 53–47, the lowest Labor lead by this measure of any poll since the last election.
The Redbridge poll suggested Labor had not been damaged by the expenses claims, but this poll contradicts that. All interviews were conducted before the Bondi attacks.
The full four-week poll had a sample of 4,862. In state and demographic breakdowns, the Coalition regained the lead in Queensland by 50.5–49.5, but Labor led in the other five states. Labor led by 58.5–41.5 with women and 52.5–47.5 with men.
Labor led by 69.5–30.5 with those aged 18–34 and by 58.5–41.5 with those aged 35–49. The Coalition made its biggest gains with those aged 50–64 to lead by 50.5–49.5, a 4.5-point swing to the Coalition. The Coalition led with those aged 65 and over by 54.5–45.5. One Nation’s highest support was with those aged 50–64 (20.5%) and they had 22% in Queensland.
Newspoll aggregate data for September to November
The Australian released aggregate data for the three national Newspolls conducted between September 29 and November 20 on December 26. The total sample size was 3,774, with Labor holding an overall 57–43 lead. These polls were taken before the expenses scandal and Bondi.
Labor led by 58–42 in NSW, (a two-point gain for the Coalition since the September quarter Newspoll aggregate according to The Poll Bludger), 60–40 in Victoria (a two-point gain for Labor), 52–48 in Queensland (a one-point gain for Labor), 56–44 in Western Australia (a two-point gain for Labor) and 58–42 in South Australia (a three-point gain for Labor).
Among those without a tertiary education, primary votes were 30% Labor (down two), 26% Coalition (down six), 20% One Nation (up nine) and 14% Greens (up one), for an unchanged 53–47 Labor lead. With TAFE educated, primary votes were 35% Labor (down two), 24% Coalition (down one), 19% One Nation (up seven) and 9% Greens (steady) for a 54–46 Labor lead (a three-point gain for the Coalition).
However, with the university educated, primary votes were 41% Labor (up three), 26% Coalition (down three), 13% Greens (down two) and 6% One Nation (up one), for a 62–38 Labor lead (a two-point gain for Labor).
Resolve likeabilty poll
Resolve’s poll of net likeability of federal politicians was taken in early December, before Bondi and the expenses scandal. Only two politicians had negative net likeability: Lidia Thorpe (-12) and Barnaby Joyce (-4).
Net likeability of prominent Labor politicians were Chris Bowen (net zero), Murray Watt (+4), Jim Chalmers (+5), Richard Marles (+6), Tony Burke (+7), Tanya Plibersek (+9) and Penny Wong (+11). David Pocock and Jacqui Lambie were on top with both at +15. Greens leader Larissa Waters was at +5.
One Nation leader Pauline Hanson’s net likeability increased 16 points since December 2024 to +3, but was down five points since November. Joyce’s net likeability was up 18 since December 2024 and up four since November. Thorpe’s net likeability surged 29 points since December 2024.
Only one politician suffered a fall in net likeability since December 2024: Liberal Jacinta Price was down five points to +3.
Not likely to effect the re-election of labor for a 3rd term even 4th term.
Coalition and one nation just be pulling in the racists and other clowns so that doesn’t matter as much, They still aren’t in a position to really challenge anything.
54-46 the ALP’s way is not a hit.
This poll has been discussed ad nauseum for the past 3 weeks. The reason that the ALP isn’t budging on the RC question is that the voting public don’t rate it as an issue, as the polls have demonstrated.
This will be temporary. Once the media realises more and more people aren’t buying their BS, and more things happen as time goes on, they will give up and move on.
People who are getting their knickers in a twist over the RC were only floating Labor voters
>By 46–29, respondents in Resolve thought the federal government’s response to Bondi was weak rather than strong. By 37–30, they thought social cohesion was good rather than poor.
>By 72–9, respondents thought there had been a rise in racism in Australia as a result of the Israel-Gaza conflict (69–12 when this question was last asked in January 2025). By 55–13, they thought there had been more antisemitism than Islamophobia in recent months (54–9 last January).
Very interesting that in the real world, Australians think antisemitism is a serious issue that has been heightened by the I/P, and we should do something about it.
According to Reddit, 99% of “antisemitism” isn’t real, and when it is it’s just a natural response to Israel’s actions, and the only acceptable measure to reduce antisemitism is to be harder on Israel.
Lmao someone post the trump gif. All of our poorly educated love Hanson now.
So after three weeks of non-stop repetitious screamy articles about Bondi from the Murdoch sewer, the needle has hardly budged. If we ever needed a demonstration about how toothless Rupert’s become, this is it.
And? What about the Liberal Party team and the hit they’ve taken? For shamelessly politicising the Bondi tragedy and calling for a Royal Commision. Shame shame shame. Shame on everyone who has jumped on the Royal Commission bandwagon.
Only Labor can show leadership in times of turmoil and I stand with Albo.
I do think preferences might surprise people next election.
One third of one nation voters preferenced labor in the last election but the latest one nation surge seems to be from disheartened liberal voters.
“Among those without a tertiary education, primary votes were 30% Labor (down two), 26% Coalition (down six), 20% One Nation (up nine) and 14% Greens (up one), for an unchanged 53–47 Labor lead. With TAFE educated, primary votes were 35% Labor (down two), 24% Coalition (down one), 19% One Nation (up seven) and 9% Greens (steady) for a 54–46 Labor lead (a three-point gain for the Coalition).
However, with the university educated, primary votes were 41% Labor (up three), 26% Coalition (down three), 13% Greens (down two) and 6% One Nation (up one), for a 62–38 Labor lead (a two-point gain)”
“Dumb cunts eat up coordinated outrage campaign, people who read books didnt”
Yeah thanks for reporting that at the very end of the article.
“Has Labor opinion polls taken a hit over the bondi attack? People so no but our editors say yes. More at 6.”
So after the entire media apparatus in this country exhausted all efforts to prop up Josh Frydenberg and label Albanese the next Phillipe Pétain, Labor only dropped 1 point in the 2PP?
So Sussie and the Banshees and Stokes/Murdoch/9 media can continue their search for relevance while the adults go about their business. However the adults should remember to keep their snouts out of the trough. The sad fact is Bondi knocked travel rorts off the front page.
This is within the margin of error. Albo may or may not have taken a hit. He may have taken a hit more than 1%. From this result we can’t tell if albo has taken a hit
Meh. Two and a half years till the election. Albo has never governed by being led by poll, and he won’t start now. He knows better than anyone you can poll terribly mid-term and still win a landslide election.
I’ve said it before, the RC issue, legitimate or not will be gone in a matter of week, its coming across more as a partisan issue than any care (to me)
The LNP will belatedly turn to culture war in about 15 days.
This was pre-Christmas, why are you re-upping it?
Still waiting for the New Year’s polls to come through. Those will tell us how well this prolonged campaign has been for the Libs.
“Prime Minister refuses to taint alleged killer’s jury pool by running Royal Commission concurrently with criminal trial, and polls move by 1%”
The coalition will absolutely crow though about the despicable personal attacks on Albanese having worked. A tactic borrowed directly from the get-Corbyn playbook.
What leader wouldn’t take a hit at the polls over this?
You have two large demographics fighting over this situation. Side with one and the other tanks in the polls.
What was he supposed to do?