# Summary: Lithium prices surge as traders project 60-70% EV market share in China in 2026
Traxys, one of the world’s largest lithium traders, reports the market has shifted from oversupply to scarcity, driven by surging Asian demand. Managing director Martim Facada projects China’s EV penetration will reach 60-70% this year, up from just over 50% currently—a trajectory he calls a “huge” boost for demand.
This forecast is significant because it suggests China is entering the steep part of the EV adoption S-curve. Having moved past the early-adopter phase, the country appears to be hitting the inflection point where mass-market adoption accelerates rapidly before eventually levelling off at saturation. A jump from ~50% to potentially 70% in a single year would represent exactly this kind of steep climb.
Chinese lithium prices have more than doubled from 2025 lows, though they remain over 70% below the late-2022 peak. The previous glut stemmed from record prices spurring oversupply just as demand disappointed—leading to project shutdowns that will take time to restart even as demand recovers.
Beyond EVs, grid-scale energy storage is becoming an increasingly important demand driver. Traxys has signed an offtake agreement with Lilac Solutions for its Utah project, with production earmarked for domestic US sale starting in 2028.
Darkhoof on
Yes, please speculate and jack the prices of lithium. Sodium ion will then have bigger leeway to develop and for the chinese corporations to seriouly invest in it and then this clown show of ridiculous speculation will come crashing down when salt is powering all stationary storage and low cost vehicles.
WeUsedToBeNumber10 on
What’s stopping sodium-ion from becoming a thing?
Dandroid550 on
Lithium is the source for right now. Move upstream to battery and vehicle manufacturers ans it’s less risky, higher added value.
4 Comments
# Summary: Lithium prices surge as traders project 60-70% EV market share in China in 2026
Traxys, one of the world’s largest lithium traders, reports the market has shifted from oversupply to scarcity, driven by surging Asian demand. Managing director Martim Facada projects China’s EV penetration will reach 60-70% this year, up from just over 50% currently—a trajectory he calls a “huge” boost for demand.
This forecast is significant because it suggests China is entering the steep part of the EV adoption S-curve. Having moved past the early-adopter phase, the country appears to be hitting the inflection point where mass-market adoption accelerates rapidly before eventually levelling off at saturation. A jump from ~50% to potentially 70% in a single year would represent exactly this kind of steep climb.
Chinese lithium prices have more than doubled from 2025 lows, though they remain over 70% below the late-2022 peak. The previous glut stemmed from record prices spurring oversupply just as demand disappointed—leading to project shutdowns that will take time to restart even as demand recovers.
Beyond EVs, grid-scale energy storage is becoming an increasingly important demand driver. Traxys has signed an offtake agreement with Lilac Solutions for its Utah project, with production earmarked for domestic US sale starting in 2028.
Yes, please speculate and jack the prices of lithium. Sodium ion will then have bigger leeway to develop and for the chinese corporations to seriouly invest in it and then this clown show of ridiculous speculation will come crashing down when salt is powering all stationary storage and low cost vehicles.
What’s stopping sodium-ion from becoming a thing?
Lithium is the source for right now. Move upstream to battery and vehicle manufacturers ans it’s less risky, higher added value.