Federal Voting Intention (Late January): ALP increases two-party preferred lead as One Nation overtakes the Liberal Party for the first time as Coalition splits – Roy Morgan Research
Yeah the Nats are pretty dead, this must be the first poll since at least 1987 with the Liberals and Nationals being separate parties
dleifreganad on
The One Nation juggernaut continues. Interesting times.
lazy-bruce on
It has been a monumental fumble by the LNP
Labor basically back where they were before Bondi.
ausflora on
ALP stronger than they were before Bondi. That must be embarrassing for anyone who tried to politicise that tragedy.
Electronic-Humor-931 on
So the ALP would gain more seats if an election was held today
Vegetable-Advance982 on
Lmaoooo 56.5% 2pp. I am concerned about the eventual rise of One Nation, but I suspect for the next 3 years we’re going to get to cheer on the deathmatch on the Right while wondering if Labor gets to 100 seats or not
rolodex-ofhate on
The (former) Coalition would be toast on those numbers. Imagine fumbling the post-Bondi free kick the Libs and Nationals had because David Littleproud threw his toys out of the cot.
Jealous-Hedgehog-734 on
No big bump in polling for National following shenanigans, they continue to lose ground to One Nation.
As I said, One Nation just have more credibility on anti-immigration policy. No one is convinced Nationals have had a legitimate “come to Jesus” moment.
banramarama2 on
When do we start carving the giant albanese bust out of the rocks at mouth of Sydney harbour?
We might as well start soon because it dosnt look like the right side of politics could organise a root in a brothel , let alone an election campaign
fluffy_101994 on
>Primary support for the Nationals was up 0.5% to 2.5%.
Lmao, 2.5% and Littleproud thinks he can rule with an iron fist? Hahahaha.
SurroundNo3631 on
When you’ve got Labor at 30.5%, One Nation at 22.5% and the Liberals at 20.5% that 2PP has to be inherently unreliable unless you’re asking who these voters would allocate their preference to.
For a party that’s increased its primary vote from 6% to 22% you can’t reliably assume a preference split from the 2025 election. I’m not saying the 2PP gap would be wider or narrower, I’m just saying mathematically it’s subject to a much wider margin of error.
If these numbers were to remain the same heading into an election it becomes much more of a seat by seat contest. It’s a fundamentally less predictable system than what we’ve been used to.
Moving someone’s primary vote is hard. Moving their preference much less so.
343CreeperMaster on
primary for ALP is still a bit concerning, but it is good to see it recovering and the GRN primary staying relatively stable as well, still will always be concerned about One Nation, but these are good numbers
12 Comments
Yeah the Nats are pretty dead, this must be the first poll since at least 1987 with the Liberals and Nationals being separate parties
The One Nation juggernaut continues. Interesting times.
It has been a monumental fumble by the LNP
Labor basically back where they were before Bondi.
ALP stronger than they were before Bondi. That must be embarrassing for anyone who tried to politicise that tragedy.
So the ALP would gain more seats if an election was held today
Lmaoooo 56.5% 2pp. I am concerned about the eventual rise of One Nation, but I suspect for the next 3 years we’re going to get to cheer on the deathmatch on the Right while wondering if Labor gets to 100 seats or not
The (former) Coalition would be toast on those numbers. Imagine fumbling the post-Bondi free kick the Libs and Nationals had because David Littleproud threw his toys out of the cot.
No big bump in polling for National following shenanigans, they continue to lose ground to One Nation.
As I said, One Nation just have more credibility on anti-immigration policy. No one is convinced Nationals have had a legitimate “come to Jesus” moment.
When do we start carving the giant albanese bust out of the rocks at mouth of Sydney harbour?
We might as well start soon because it dosnt look like the right side of politics could organise a root in a brothel , let alone an election campaign
>Primary support for the Nationals was up 0.5% to 2.5%.
Lmao, 2.5% and Littleproud thinks he can rule with an iron fist? Hahahaha.
When you’ve got Labor at 30.5%, One Nation at 22.5% and the Liberals at 20.5% that 2PP has to be inherently unreliable unless you’re asking who these voters would allocate their preference to.
For a party that’s increased its primary vote from 6% to 22% you can’t reliably assume a preference split from the 2025 election. I’m not saying the 2PP gap would be wider or narrower, I’m just saying mathematically it’s subject to a much wider margin of error.
If these numbers were to remain the same heading into an election it becomes much more of a seat by seat contest. It’s a fundamentally less predictable system than what we’ve been used to.
Moving someone’s primary vote is hard. Moving their preference much less so.
primary for ALP is still a bit concerning, but it is good to see it recovering and the GRN primary staying relatively stable as well, still will always be concerned about One Nation, but these are good numbers