Tempting time to call an election. Probably too risky. They only need one vote. And no party is going to dare take them out soon. I also suspect people will continue to tire with Poilievre. Leaders tend to get less popular over time, not more popular. Poilievre will continue to have a loyal following. But it won’t be big enough to win.
Conservatives generally poll lower. So you could add a couple of points. Also, the NDP would probably move to the LPC to avoid Poilievre taking power.
They could get rid of him this weekend. But I doubt it. No one since Harper has even brought them close to winning. Too bad Poilievre got what he wished for. He wanted to destroy Trudeau, and he tied. A good lesson there in unintended consequences.
Mundane-Teaching-743 on
Also shows big boost in Quebec at the expense of the Bloc and Conservatives (consistent with Leger):
lp-bq-cp-nd-gr
41-27-24-04-02 (Jan 22-27) Abacus
37-31-26-02-03 (Jan 09-14) Abacus
GammaFan on
Carney isn’t calling a snap election any time soon, no matter how tempting may look on paper.
He already has an effective majority by only needing 1 non-liberal vote on anything. This is soft power. Carney, unlike many modern politicians, understands soft power.
The liberals only need one more voluntary floor crosser and all of a sudden they have a true majority. I don’t believe for a second that they’re short sighted enough to give up this position for a *chance* at locking down a majority if it’s way more likely to piss off the populace and make it clear you’re not serious about *governing.*
Put someone like Pierre however in the same situation and he would absolutely blow up his own soft power for a chance at a true majority.
hardk7 on
I still think there’s a decent chance at floor crossers after the Poilievre leadership vote. When the membership gives him a large vote of support, and with some of the policy resolutions they’re proposing, I think there’s likely a couple more moderate CPC MPs remaining that will realize there isnt a place for them in that party, and want to have a role in government.
Hour_Season8625 on
To me, this all but confirms a permanent rut for the NDP. The Tories and BQ numbers seem more or less stable, yet NDP is bleeding support.
Given that the Grits are not exactly governing from the left, I would suggest this indicates this support is more permanent than a simple Davos-bump, especially since this is only the latest in a series of polls stating the same thing
6 Comments
[deleted]
Tempting time to call an election. Probably too risky. They only need one vote. And no party is going to dare take them out soon. I also suspect people will continue to tire with Poilievre. Leaders tend to get less popular over time, not more popular. Poilievre will continue to have a loyal following. But it won’t be big enough to win.
Conservatives generally poll lower. So you could add a couple of points. Also, the NDP would probably move to the LPC to avoid Poilievre taking power.
They could get rid of him this weekend. But I doubt it. No one since Harper has even brought them close to winning. Too bad Poilievre got what he wished for. He wanted to destroy Trudeau, and he tied. A good lesson there in unintended consequences.
Also shows big boost in Quebec at the expense of the Bloc and Conservatives (consistent with Leger):
lp-bq-cp-nd-gr
41-27-24-04-02 (Jan 22-27) Abacus
37-31-26-02-03 (Jan 09-14) Abacus
Carney isn’t calling a snap election any time soon, no matter how tempting may look on paper.
He already has an effective majority by only needing 1 non-liberal vote on anything. This is soft power. Carney, unlike many modern politicians, understands soft power.
The liberals only need one more voluntary floor crosser and all of a sudden they have a true majority. I don’t believe for a second that they’re short sighted enough to give up this position for a *chance* at locking down a majority if it’s way more likely to piss off the populace and make it clear you’re not serious about *governing.*
Put someone like Pierre however in the same situation and he would absolutely blow up his own soft power for a chance at a true majority.
I still think there’s a decent chance at floor crossers after the Poilievre leadership vote. When the membership gives him a large vote of support, and with some of the policy resolutions they’re proposing, I think there’s likely a couple more moderate CPC MPs remaining that will realize there isnt a place for them in that party, and want to have a role in government.
To me, this all but confirms a permanent rut for the NDP. The Tories and BQ numbers seem more or less stable, yet NDP is bleeding support.
Given that the Grits are not exactly governing from the left, I would suggest this indicates this support is more permanent than a simple Davos-bump, especially since this is only the latest in a series of polls stating the same thing