This is less about India suddenly turning away from Russia and more about the plumbing getting tighter.
Sanctions pressure, payment frictions and shadow-fleet scrutiny are slowly raising the cost of doing business with Russian crude. That’s why flows are drifting lower, not collapsing overnight.
Russian supply is still economically attractive for Indian refiners, but the risk-adjusted cost is rising.
Watch the banks and insurers. If they tighten further, the next leg of reduction will come from market mechanics, not politics.
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Finally. Good news
This is less about India suddenly turning away from Russia and more about the plumbing getting tighter.
Sanctions pressure, payment frictions and shadow-fleet scrutiny are slowly raising the cost of doing business with Russian crude. That’s why flows are drifting lower, not collapsing overnight.
Russian supply is still economically attractive for Indian refiners, but the risk-adjusted cost is rising.
Watch the banks and insurers. If they tighten further, the next leg of reduction will come from market mechanics, not politics.