The Iran war has been a catastrophe for many civilians in the country and around the Middle East. But it has proved lucrative for some anonymous traders, who have made suspiciously timed wagers on Polymarket, the prediction-market website.
CNN reports that one trader has made close to $1 million through Polymarket since 2024 after making dozens of accurate five-figure bets on actions that the U.S. and Israel militaries had taken against Iran. According to the outlet’s analysis, this user, who used Polymarket’s international website, had a 93 percent accuracy rate on military operations that would not be known to the public. This included bets that were made just hours before the U.S. and Israel’s unannounced strikes on Iran in late February as well as wagers made just prior to the U.S.’s attack on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025.
The Guardian reported this week that eight newly created Polymarket accounts wagered a total of $70,000 on the possibility of a cease-fire being called in Iran before the end of the month, bets that could result in a $820,000 payoff if successful. Per the outlet, the accounts were made around March 21, the same period of time when President Donald Trump took to social media and said the U.S. was considering “winding down our great Military efforts” in a big shift on his stance on the war.
Ben Yorke, a former researcher with Cointelegraph, told the Guardian that the market-price bets appeared suspicious because of indicators that they might have stemmed from a single trader who was splitting their wagers among different accounts. “Typically, when you see wallet-splitting and deliberate attempts to obfuscate identity, it’s one of two scenarios: either a very large investor trying to shield their position from market impact, or insider trading,” Yorke told the outlet.
This conflict is not the first time suspicious bets have prompted raised eyebrows. In January, a Polymarket trader made more than $400,000 on bets that Nicolás Maduro would soon be ousted from his role as Venezuelan president, making a final bet just hours before Trump would order a series of strikes on the country that would result in Maduro’s capture, per The Wall Street Journal.
The high-profile bets have garnered significant scrutiny from members of Congress who are now seeking to place limits on what prediction markets can be allowed to trade on. Last week, Connecticut senator Chris Murphy and Texas representative Greg Casar jointly introduced the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions Act, or BETS OFF Act, that makes it illegal to place wagers on terrorism, assassination, war, or government actions as well as events where someone has prior knowledge of an outcome or can influence it.
“This bill will stop the transformation of our society into a rigged video game casino by banning the prediction markets that allow the powerful insiders to get rich by commodifying every part of our lives,” Murphy said in a statement.
As lawmakers eye potential restrictions, betting markets took new steps this week to prevent future insider trading and market manipulation on their platforms. The U.S.-based Kalshi announced on Monday that it was implementing new tools and screenings to preemptively block political candidates from trading on their own campaigns and races as well as those associated with college and professional sports from trading on leagues they’re affiliated with. In addition to athletes, the new policy would also bar referees and personnel from trading via screening lists.
And Polymarket updated its market-integrity rules, clarifying that users are prohibited from trading on illegal tips and stolen confidential information and are barred from trading on outcomes that they personally hold a position of influence or authority over. How to enforce that provision is another question.
Ancient_Popcorn on
More evidence that Trump is a massive grifter at the expense of the American public.
Cease_Cows_ on
It’s always a grift
Littlehoyt on
It’s not even unusual anymore, it’s just blatant.
We’re talking about $580 million in oil bets and a massive S&P 500 futures spike happening exactly 15 minutes before the Truth Social post about productive talks. That isn’t a lucky guess or market intuition that is someone with a direct line to the White House printing money while the rest of the country is paying $4.50 at the pump to fund the war.
cmonjeffgetem on
You can send a drone strike through the Robin Hood app now
Ask_DontTell on
the problem isn’t evidence – it’s enforcement. right now doesn’t look like anyone in DC cares as most of them are probably benefitting
literallytwisted on
Good thing we have a lawful and moral Congress to put a stop to insider trading!
AnyOlUsername on
There’s always evidence but no one ever gets prosecuted so it doesn’t matter.
HMTMKMKM95 on
This isn’t just insider trading, it’s war profiteering. That’s an extra level of scumbag behaviour.
Raspberries-Are-Evil on
Im sure Pam Bondi will get right on that.
Pokerhobo on
Trump controls the SEC (Trump nominated the chair) and DOJ so who’s going to enforce anything here? It’s just blatant corruption. Start a war that impact the population by billions to make millions.
Mecha-Dave on
I would put money on it being Barron Trump.
Ohuigin on
If only we’d be looking at more evidence emerging of the fact that Trump raped children.
Just because we’re currently participating in America’s favorite pastime (bombing brown people on the other side of the planet), doesn’t mean we have to forget that Donald Trump is a 34x convicted felon and child rapist.
cybah on
So we are killing people so some people can work the stock market. What the actual fuck people. Greed is just plain old out of control if we are doing this.
I can’t imagine Polymarket is very happy about this insider betting. This is actually better than insider trading because the SEC can be influenced/bribed while Polymarket is less likely to look the other way after paying out millions.
Crafty_Ish1973 on
The entire Trump administration is nothing but insider trading and fraud on a mind-boggling scale, and it’s exactly what the Republican party wants.
OG_2_tone420 on
When will Americans actually fight back?
I would place a bet on that, but I’m relatively poor and have no idea how to do it.
-my bet would be that we never will.
xxx_poonslayer69 on
Corruption? OUR politicians being unethical?? I am SHOOK 🫨
Niceguy955 on
No need looking for evidence. You can ask people in this regime directly, and they’ll happily admit to profiteering from war and privileged information. Some of them think it’s their right. The ones who know it’s wrong expect a pardon, like every other Trump crime family member.
L44KSO on
Prosecute the administration
ratbaby86 on
Time to storm the Bastille, y’all.
OkMathematician3494 on
It was the donald trump SR
It was donald trump junior so orange man did nothing wrong
Maga logic
Potential-Fan-6148 on
They’re making profit off the death of American soldiers!
Guy-Manuel on
They’re killing people to steal money from us
Grogon2 on
Imagine if you had given your vote to that clown lol I’d be so angry.
I m not from US but it’d piss me off even more lol
Spiderbanana on
You must really be the bottom of a rotten garbage bin sitting in the sun to be profiteering from war
Awkward_Squad on
This is what the war was started for.
AdEquivalent8644 on
profiteering off war
Pure_Choice_8459 on
What!?!? Never! That’s not legal!!
StrengthThin9043 on
It’s sad that Americans don’t do accountability, otherwise these criminals would be in trouble.
31 Comments
The Iran war has been a catastrophe for many civilians in the country and around the Middle East. But it has proved lucrative for some anonymous traders, who have made suspiciously timed wagers on Polymarket, the prediction-market website.
CNN reports that one trader has made close to $1 million through Polymarket since 2024 after making dozens of accurate five-figure bets on actions that the U.S. and Israel militaries had taken against Iran. According to the outlet’s analysis, this user, who used Polymarket’s international website, had a 93 percent accuracy rate on military operations that would not be known to the public. This included bets that were made just hours before the U.S. and Israel’s unannounced strikes on Iran in late February as well as wagers made just prior to the U.S.’s attack on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025.
The Guardian reported this week that eight newly created Polymarket accounts wagered a total of $70,000 on the possibility of a cease-fire being called in Iran before the end of the month, bets that could result in a $820,000 payoff if successful. Per the outlet, the accounts were made around March 21, the same period of time when President Donald Trump took to social media and said the U.S. was considering “winding down our great Military efforts” in a big shift on his stance on the war.
Ben Yorke, a former researcher with Cointelegraph, told the Guardian that the market-price bets appeared suspicious because of indicators that they might have stemmed from a single trader who was splitting their wagers among different accounts. “Typically, when you see wallet-splitting and deliberate attempts to obfuscate identity, it’s one of two scenarios: either a very large investor trying to shield their position from market impact, or insider trading,” Yorke told the outlet.
This conflict is not the first time suspicious bets have prompted raised eyebrows. In January, a Polymarket trader made more than $400,000 on bets that Nicolás Maduro would soon be ousted from his role as Venezuelan president, making a final bet just hours before Trump would order a series of strikes on the country that would result in Maduro’s capture, per The Wall Street Journal.
The high-profile bets have garnered significant scrutiny from members of Congress who are now seeking to place limits on what prediction markets can be allowed to trade on. Last week, Connecticut senator Chris Murphy and Texas representative Greg Casar jointly introduced the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions Act, or BETS OFF Act, that makes it illegal to place wagers on terrorism, assassination, war, or government actions as well as events where someone has prior knowledge of an outcome or can influence it.
“This bill will stop the transformation of our society into a rigged video game casino by banning the prediction markets that allow the powerful insiders to get rich by commodifying every part of our lives,” Murphy said in a statement.
As lawmakers eye potential restrictions, betting markets took new steps this week to prevent future insider trading and market manipulation on their platforms. The U.S.-based Kalshi announced on Monday that it was implementing new tools and screenings to preemptively block political candidates from trading on their own campaigns and races as well as those associated with college and professional sports from trading on leagues they’re affiliated with. In addition to athletes, the new policy would also bar referees and personnel from trading via screening lists.
And Polymarket updated its market-integrity rules, clarifying that users are prohibited from trading on illegal tips and stolen confidential information and are barred from trading on outcomes that they personally hold a position of influence or authority over. How to enforce that provision is another question.
More evidence that Trump is a massive grifter at the expense of the American public.
It’s always a grift
It’s not even unusual anymore, it’s just blatant.
We’re talking about $580 million in oil bets and a massive S&P 500 futures spike happening exactly 15 minutes before the Truth Social post about productive talks. That isn’t a lucky guess or market intuition that is someone with a direct line to the White House printing money while the rest of the country is paying $4.50 at the pump to fund the war.
You can send a drone strike through the Robin Hood app now
the problem isn’t evidence – it’s enforcement. right now doesn’t look like anyone in DC cares as most of them are probably benefitting
Good thing we have a lawful and moral Congress to put a stop to insider trading!
There’s always evidence but no one ever gets prosecuted so it doesn’t matter.
This isn’t just insider trading, it’s war profiteering. That’s an extra level of scumbag behaviour.
Im sure Pam Bondi will get right on that.
Trump controls the SEC (Trump nominated the chair) and DOJ so who’s going to enforce anything here? It’s just blatant corruption. Start a war that impact the population by billions to make millions.
I would put money on it being Barron Trump.
If only we’d be looking at more evidence emerging of the fact that Trump raped children.
Just because we’re currently participating in America’s favorite pastime (bombing brown people on the other side of the planet), doesn’t mean we have to forget that Donald Trump is a 34x convicted felon and child rapist.
So we are killing people so some people can work the stock market. What the actual fuck people. Greed is just plain old out of control if we are doing this.
Needs an update … [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_(The_Temptations_song)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_(The_Temptations_song))
I can’t imagine Polymarket is very happy about this insider betting. This is actually better than insider trading because the SEC can be influenced/bribed while Polymarket is less likely to look the other way after paying out millions.
The entire Trump administration is nothing but insider trading and fraud on a mind-boggling scale, and it’s exactly what the Republican party wants.
When will Americans actually fight back?
I would place a bet on that, but I’m relatively poor and have no idea how to do it.
-my bet would be that we never will.
Corruption? OUR politicians being unethical?? I am SHOOK 🫨
No need looking for evidence. You can ask people in this regime directly, and they’ll happily admit to profiteering from war and privileged information. Some of them think it’s their right. The ones who know it’s wrong expect a pardon, like every other Trump crime family member.
Prosecute the administration
Time to storm the Bastille, y’all.
It was the donald trump SR
It was donald trump junior so orange man did nothing wrong
Maga logic
They’re making profit off the death of American soldiers!
They’re killing people to steal money from us
Imagine if you had given your vote to that clown lol I’d be so angry.
I m not from US but it’d piss me off even more lol
You must really be the bottom of a rotten garbage bin sitting in the sun to be profiteering from war
This is what the war was started for.
profiteering off war
What!?!? Never! That’s not legal!!
It’s sad that Americans don’t do accountability, otherwise these criminals would be in trouble.