Written by Robert Kagan, a well known NeoCon and former hawk on the Middle East. Starts with this:
It’s hard to think of a time when the United States suffered a total defeat in a conflict, a setback so decisive that the strategic loss could be neither repaired nor ignored. The calamitous losses suffered at Pearl Harbor, the Philippines, and throughout the Western Pacific in the first months of World War II were eventually reversed. The defeats in Vietnam and Afghanistan were costly but did not do lasting damage to America’s overall position in the world, because they were far from the main theaters of global competition. The initial failure in Iraq was mitigated by a shift in strategy that ultimately left Iraq relatively stable and unthreatening to its neighbors and kept the United States dominant in the region.
Defeat in the present confrontation with Iran will be of an entirely different character. It can neither be repaired nor ignored. There will be no return to the status quo ante, no ultimate American triumph that will undo or overcome the harm done. The Strait of Hormuz will not be “open,” as it once was. With control of the strait, Iran emerges as the key player in the region and one of the key players in the world.
Source: Epicurus-fan
3 Comments
Previous administration’s listened to their strategic advisors. Trump fired his, and here we are.
Old news for anyone that listens to seasoned advisors like Mearshimer and Pape.
Trump is not done with his strategy. No one, nor even Trump, knows what he will do next. It is Monday, the usual time for announcements about a near peace deal. Maybe there will be shooting this week. Maybe not. Trump could carpet bomb Iran to get something else out of the headlines. The lack of a strategy is not done playing out. Iran does seem to have an excellent counter strategy. The results are not promising for the US.