The model we should be using for the current energy transition is that renewables wind up merely as a new layer on top of all previous energy sources.
The model which foresees renewables replacing previous sources is probably wrong, unless a new, very aggressive big bang effort is undertaken.
I wish this wasn't the case. obviously. The grand upsweep of renewables into the global power system has been heroic, really encouraging. However, the history of energy transitions shows that each new entrant into the world's energy system tends to wind up as a layer on top of the previous sources. Yes, there is a big slowdown in demand growth for the prior energy source, but then it picks up again eventually. Basic reason: economic growth.
To achieve the energy transition most expect, not only do renewables have to cover all marginal growth in the global energy system, but they must cut into the underlayer of FF incumbency. In global power, that equation is currently at a stand-off: encouragingly, we are *almost* covering marginal growth with wind and solar and batteries, but underlying growth keeps getting away from us.
The forward momentum of global energy transition has now stagnated, and the deployment of new energy technology has lapsed into becoming an additive rather than a transformative phenomenon. The scholarship on this question is also rather definitive as previous transitions, while ultimately successful at overthrowing one regime for another, left behind plenty of structural dependency on older forms of energy. Yes, coal overtook wood. But wood consumption ultimately went higher as the global economy grew. Oil overtook coal, which hurt coal demand temporarily, until coal stormed back in the 20th century to basically sit alongside oil, reaching successive new highs of consumption. Wind and solar and batteries initially took out lots of old, inefficient power generation, and suppressed the full potential of natural gas growth. But now those new energy technologies have met sustained resistance, unable to penetrate the legacy underlayer of fossil fuel combustion.
Source: GregorMacdonald
1 Comment
Stupid post. In reality many countries have seen a reduction in fossil fuel usage due to renewables. That is why Europe’s CO2 emissions have been dropping for example.
Stupid jevons argument are always wrong.