Democrats Won Big Because They Won Over Trump Supporters: It wasn’t just about superior turnout. Party switchers played a significant role in Virginia and New Jersey.
Source: Silent-Resort-3076
Democrats Won Big Because They Won Over Trump Supporters: It wasn’t just about superior turnout. Party switchers played a significant role in Virginia and New Jersey.
Source: Silent-Resort-3076
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Snippet:
EDITED TO ADD: **Here are two ways we know this:** 1) Exit polls 2) Voter records: Usually, this data takes months to become available. But in New Jersey, nine counties containing nearly half of the state’s electorate have already provided this data for both early and Election Day voters, etc…..
* In the Trump era, Democrats have seemed to excel among the highly engaged, highly educated voters who predominate in low-turnout, off-year elections, only to struggle when more irregular and less educated voters flock to the polls in presidential years.
* But on Tuesday, when Democrats won the Virginia and New Jersey governor’s races by wide margins, it wasn’t simply because more Democratic-leaning voters showed up to the polls while more Republican-leaning voters sat out. The Democratic candidates also succeeded at winning over a modest but meaningful sliver of President Trump’s supporters, based on exit polls and authoritative voter file records.
* While it’s always challenging to nail down the details of an electoral shift, the available data generally suggests that Democratic gains were driven slightly more by flipping Mr. Trump’s supporters than by benefiting from a superior turnout, at least for Abigail Spanberger in Virginia and Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey.
* Together, the combination of a more Democratic electorate and success among those swing voters was enough to turn light blue Virginia and New Jersey into Democratic romps. It was also enough to allow Democrats to reverse last year’s losses among Hispanic voters, as many of Mr. Trump’s new Hispanic supporters from 2024 stayed home and many others returned to the Democrats.
*If* this is true, it was *not* by virtue of appealing to the right. Remember that when the DNC and establishment Dems start insisting that everyone won their primaries by leaning hard right in their campaigns, and people start saying that the key to victory is to never talk about trans people again, or to focus fiscal conservatism rather than meaningful progress.
Can anyone explain why the Republicans have positioned themselves as the party of Israel? Why would they do that?
They’re called “swing voters” and yeah, they exist in high quantities. Even they can see that what Trump is doing is extremely bad for America. It wasn’t nearly as clear during his first term, but it’s now very VERY obvious that the man has gotten so insane with his policies, so clearly associated with Epstein, and is so addled with dementia, that anyone with half a braincell is going to start voting against him now.
This is why you’re seeing historic blue waves in deep red counties, and I don’t think gerrymandering is even gonna help those vile traitors. Johnson, Miller, Trump, and the other people complicit will be behind bars by Spring 2027.
Trump did this to himself when he said he didn’t care about the people, he only wanted their votes. If people on the right are truly starting to see who Trump really is, we should welcome them back as Americans. We can sort the small stuff out later, as long as we have a place to continue discussing the small stuff.
I don’t trust establishment dems not to fuck this moment up, unfortunately
Won Bigly
That just proved my theory: Trump won last year not because he is great, is because last year democrats is a mess. If Biden dropped out earlier, or Harris didn’t go the centrist role, or if we are given a proper primary; Trump would never win.
There is a freaking huge difference between “winning over” a voter and them being so disgusted with their current party that the vote for your party as a protest.
I saw nothing in the linked piece to show these “party switchers” were anything but the latter case.
Wow who could have guessed zohran becomes a national figure on fighting the corrupt party bureaucracy from the inside and turns up a bunch of disaffected party voters. I wonder how the democrats will squander this.
I guess that being governed by a mentally deficient asshole isn’t as amusing as voting for one. I wish that more people had figured that out after the first time around.
Did they really win Iverson Trump supporters or did they not go out to vote?
I don’t think these voters have yet recognized the cause and effect relationship of their votes. Donald Trump ran a populist campaign TWICE and was elected twice, only losing after he began flailing and showing his true colors and literally killing people in 2020. People abandon Trump because he doesn’t fix it FAST enough, not because he’s completely betrayed his stances and in fact lied about all of them.
These votes aren’t something we should constantly be twerking for but rather offering a new, fresh and pragmatic populist angle that appeals to moderate and progressive voters while advertising it as a democratic brand. The anti-trumpism needs to be there but at the RIGHT time, not the motivating factor in a campaign.
The wins we saw last night were due to just that, populism finding its brand in its respective territories and making sure that Dems relentlessly pitched a smart and intelligent plan to keep your costs low but also make sure that we’d stop whatever chaos is coming your way. That’s an appealing thing to vote for, but for some be-grieved Trump supporters they may not realize that Dems can actually do what Trump has said for nearly a decade and get your costs low and drain the swamp.
They did this because Trump sucks just so hard. Wait till Republicans find a candidate who isn’t just a total dumbass monster. The pendulum goes back the other way. Outside of a few leftists who doesn’t suck? Schumer and Jeffries are bitches and they will continue neoliberal policies and not actually help the average person
Didn’t Mamdani win 10% of Trump voters?
Didn’t Mamdani win 10% of Trump voters?
They won in local races because it’s difficult for Fox News to attack them with made up BS 24/7 like they do with national politicians.
Not nearly enough talk about Dems sweeping the election that Elon wasn’t involved in. It’s almost like Elon effected the results of the last one directly
Trump alienated latinos, blacks, gen z, women, and moderates.
Democrats didn’t win anyone over unfortunately.
The morons that thought Trump was going to help them just got burned and learned better.
Democrats still have a long way to go if they are going to have the firepower they need in the midterms to counter Trump.
They need to take notes from Mamdani and actually embrace leftist policies and nuke the Hakeem Jeffries Republican-light fake centrist bullshit that only serves corporate donors.
People see it clearly and they despise the Andrew Cuomo’s, Chuck Schumers, Nancy Pelosis, etc. Theyre garbage and need to be primaried with Democrats that actually want to work for the working class Americans.
Almost like when you fire a bunch of federal workers that lived in Virginia, the ones that are Republican aren’t going to like that. Especially when coming for a little rat like Elon.
Possibly a controversial opinion, but I’d wager it’s actually because daddy Trump pissed off baby Elon and now the man child is financing his enemies.
Absolutely a hot trash take. They engaged their base with a reason to care and regular Americans who have been effected by the tariffs, ICE, and the shutdown whom normally do not vote, did.
Hardcore MAGA does not regret their vote. They will not, because it would shatter a world view that would then require devastating self reflection. I genuinely hope some can, but the vast majority would rather double down then admit they have been conned.
Dems are gonna take the wrong message away from these victories, again.