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  1. This special election really shouldn’t have been competitive in the first place. TN-07 is a heavily gerrymandered district that Trump won by 22 points in 2024. But if Democrat Aftyn Behn pulls off a historical upset and flips district from the GOP, Republicans will be left with the slimmest 218-216 majority in the House. This means that any single defection from the GOP would result in a failure on a party-line vote, and we know that Thomas Massie tends to vote No on GOP bills quite often.

    It would be absolutely hilarious to witness Mike Johnson struggle to hold together his zero-vote margin House majority. Please, Tennessee, elect Aftyn Behn on Tuesday.

  2. Let’s see how it actually plays out before we say anything. Headlines love drama but voters usually love muscle memory

  3. Even if republicans win this election, anything less than a double digit margin will have them in full panic mode. And rightfully so. It’s sort of insane that this is close enough to talk about.

  4. It’s a +22 Trump district — definitely a longshot, so even if Dems lose but come close, it’ll be a pretty big insult to Republicans in a ruby red district.

  5. ” … if Behn loses by six or seven points, Republicans in districts that Trump won by less than 15 points might start getting a tad nervous (for those keeping score at home, that’s 53 Republican members).”

  6. Seems like all R congress members have to do is start denouncing Trump and they’d be ok, so they are terrible and stupid

  7. This happens every time. There are concerns about the economy so people flock to Republicans thinking they are somehow good on the economy. But then they do something counter like raising taxes on the population by tariffs. And always some form of trick-down economics like the Big Beautiful Bill more tax breaks for the billionaires and corporations. Then the surprised Pikachu faces. Rinse and repeat.

  8. It was Trump +22 last year. The Republican will probably still win, but if the result is anywhere near polling and the Democrat gains 15-20 points, that’s going to be an apocalypse for Republicans nationally.

  9. InclementImmigrant on

    Maybe at this moment but never underestimate the stupidity of the American people.

  10. Everydayarmday24 on

    I’ll gladly eat my words but she won’t win. I’d love for tn to flip but if we know anything about republicans, they love standing strong behind that R

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