This post is for anyone dismissing the possibility of a global financial crash being triggered by agricultural disruptions. The original study is from 2023,
Kornhuber, K., Lesk, C., Schleussner, C.F. *et al.* Risks of synchronized low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections. *Nat Commun* **14**, 3528 (2023). [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-38906-7](https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-38906-7)
Earlier today someone else posted “Sky-High Oil Prices. A Fertilizer Shortage. Now Add a “Super El Niño.”” [https://newrepublic.com/article/208547/iran-war-polycrisis-oil-gas-fertilizer-prices-super-el-nino](https://newrepublic.com/article/208547/iran-war-polycrisis-oil-gas-fertilizer-prices-super-el-nino) which asserts that a super El Nino would hammer crops through hot drought here and flooding there, at the same time Iran war fertilizer disruption hits the farms too.
It seems that was once a “black swan” event – simultaneous crop failures with massive impact but extremely low likelihood – is fast becoming a “when” rather than “if” event.
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This post is for anyone dismissing the possibility of a global financial crash being triggered by agricultural disruptions. The original study is from 2023,
Kornhuber, K., Lesk, C., Schleussner, C.F. *et al.* Risks of synchronized low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections. *Nat Commun* **14**, 3528 (2023). [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-38906-7](https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-38906-7)
Earlier today someone else posted “Sky-High Oil Prices. A Fertilizer Shortage. Now Add a “Super El Niño.”” [https://newrepublic.com/article/208547/iran-war-polycrisis-oil-gas-fertilizer-prices-super-el-nino](https://newrepublic.com/article/208547/iran-war-polycrisis-oil-gas-fertilizer-prices-super-el-nino) which asserts that a super El Nino would hammer crops through hot drought here and flooding there, at the same time Iran war fertilizer disruption hits the farms too.
At least one pro says the El Nino’ could be the biggest in 140 years. [https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/04/a-powerhouse-el-nino-event-appears-to-be-brewing-for-2026-27/](https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/04/a-powerhouse-el-nino-event-appears-to-be-brewing-for-2026-27/)
Also this week, a report on the loss of sea ice N of Norway/Russia (Barrents Sea) triggers simultaneous harvest-hammering heat waves in parts of Europe and Russia. [https://climatefactchecks.org/how-vanishing-arctic-ice-is-fueling-heatwaves-in-europe-and-eastern-asia/](https://climatefactchecks.org/how-vanishing-arctic-ice-is-fueling-heatwaves-in-europe-and-eastern-asia/)
It seems that was once a “black swan” event – simultaneous crop failures with massive impact but extremely low likelihood – is fast becoming a “when” rather than “if” event.