I doubt even 4 months would make any difference as the blockade is only on the southern coast, central Asia and the Caspian are still open to them
Fit-Ad-835 on
Said it in another post, which was removed, so I copied my comment here:
Here the important part: it could be even less than four months if we are talking about the government itself, But at least i year imo if we are talking about IRGC. There are some factors that are not counted in.
I’m Iranian and i can promise you, IRGC die hard members will survive a year or even a decade in the worst case scenario, because it’s a religious matter to them. Hell, even if the regime falls, they are going to keep fighting like that Japanese soldier after the war. So they will stand in ruins of iran with guns in hand, and hurl drones at ship even if they fall, that’s a fact. The resistance ideology they have means giving up is not an option. They are not going to step down from rocket launchers right after the war ends.
But, blockade doesn’t have to last until IRGC or government collapses from lack of funding, but rather until people see it necessary to stand up again, despite the death threats from the government.
Right now there is a power keg waiting to blow inside but, it lacks the Leadership needed and there is fear of being gunned down still present. IF timed right with another attack, there might be a hope to do it sooner (unlike the January where trump said people should protest and he has their backs when the navy was halfway across the globe)
Tldr; the regime itself could fall sooner if you consider four months is when governments can last, not the poor people, but banking on IRGC giving up sooner is wrong.
Also, four months isn’t a lot, considering iran withstood the Iraq war for 8 years.
xmuskorx on
3-4 months without even hot fighting does not sound very long
CMG30 on
Iran has been preparing for a confrontation like this with the US for the better part of a century. They can hold out for a long time.
Midterms are coming and the closure of the strait is a long term play to pressure the President. The last ship going to California from the Gulf has only just arrived in port a day ago.
Right now storages are still meeting demand and the price at the pump is going up only to reflect future supply predictions. Once the storage tanks actually run dry, the price spikes are going to be insane because there will not be enough supply to meet demand. Consumers will be bidding against everyone else in the world. Trump has been jawboning the market up till now. It’s an open question how long it will continue to work.
The US has depleted it’s weapons stockpile to concerning levels just to give Trump a fireworks show. The US cannot afford to keep attacking Iran at anywhere near the pace they were before because they don’t have the capacity to replace what they’re firing in a timely manner.
Iran knows all of this. The longer they hold out, the more the pressure ramps up on Trump. Iran will kill as many of their own people as it takes to maintain order. Besides, All the war crimes the US has already committed in Iran has not endeared the population to America. Worse, Trump already hung the protesters out to dry in January and got tons of them killed. Anyone who thinks that Iran is going to imploded into regime change anytime soon is smoking the good stuff.
CallmeChapybara on
Till Christmas it will be over, you guys/s
beachgood-coldsux on
Reuters,the mouthpiece of the empire.
JarvisModeOn on
So basically: “we are choking their economy” vs “they can still hold out for months”, sounds like both sides are confident and neither is actually blinking yet.
Prize_Proof5332 on
Until around the midterms…
Hairy_Pound_1356 on
I hate trump but if I was him this is great news and the obvious move
3-4 months would mean in could be done before mid term elections
a_case_of_everything on
Plenty of time for some high quality insider trading. US taxpayers and “regulators” don’t seem to mind 🙃
Love-for-everyone on
We will have 3-4 more month of all time highs in the market. Blockade on!!
sweatboxy on
With Trump’s corruption of the federal government, all federal reports are doubtful. I mean, after all, we’ve already won the war a half dozen times.
Novel_Tea4378 on
In about 2 months world oil reserves will start to bottom out, and oil rationing will become absolutely necessary. Iran’s oil production is already being slowed, and they will hit the ceiling of storage in about that time period as well. Oil producers in the region will also start nearing ceiling on storage, which causes real issues as rapidly slowing oil production can actually damage wells.
The Iranians themselves, as in the regular Persian people, not the IRGC and the Basij, are suffering, and will absolute continue to suffer horribly no matter how this shakes out. Destroying the elements of the government that we did in the manner that we did solidified control of the political structure in the hands of hardline Islamists who will vigorously oppress the people of Iran, and execute far more than they previously did. They are going to starve them, kill them by thirst, and demand obedience. The IRGC and Basij will continue to eat and drink just fine, ensuring that the actual military forces remain in condition to fight.
The orange haired chaos goblin stuck his whole ego in the hornets nest, got a lot of people killed, cost billions per day unnecessarily, and ultimately will be the cause of vast suffering.
Make no mistake, the IRGC and Basij are monsters, and need to be de-fanged and removed. The current method was absolutely stupid in the extreme.
13 Comments
I doubt even 4 months would make any difference as the blockade is only on the southern coast, central Asia and the Caspian are still open to them
Said it in another post, which was removed, so I copied my comment here:
Here the important part: it could be even less than four months if we are talking about the government itself, But at least i year imo if we are talking about IRGC. There are some factors that are not counted in.
I’m Iranian and i can promise you, IRGC die hard members will survive a year or even a decade in the worst case scenario, because it’s a religious matter to them. Hell, even if the regime falls, they are going to keep fighting like that Japanese soldier after the war. So they will stand in ruins of iran with guns in hand, and hurl drones at ship even if they fall, that’s a fact. The resistance ideology they have means giving up is not an option. They are not going to step down from rocket launchers right after the war ends.
But, blockade doesn’t have to last until IRGC or government collapses from lack of funding, but rather until people see it necessary to stand up again, despite the death threats from the government.
Right now there is a power keg waiting to blow inside but, it lacks the Leadership needed and there is fear of being gunned down still present. IF timed right with another attack, there might be a hope to do it sooner (unlike the January where trump said people should protest and he has their backs when the navy was halfway across the globe)
Tldr; the regime itself could fall sooner if you consider four months is when governments can last, not the poor people, but banking on IRGC giving up sooner is wrong.
Also, four months isn’t a lot, considering iran withstood the Iraq war for 8 years.
3-4 months without even hot fighting does not sound very long
Iran has been preparing for a confrontation like this with the US for the better part of a century. They can hold out for a long time.
Midterms are coming and the closure of the strait is a long term play to pressure the President. The last ship going to California from the Gulf has only just arrived in port a day ago.
Right now storages are still meeting demand and the price at the pump is going up only to reflect future supply predictions. Once the storage tanks actually run dry, the price spikes are going to be insane because there will not be enough supply to meet demand. Consumers will be bidding against everyone else in the world. Trump has been jawboning the market up till now. It’s an open question how long it will continue to work.
The US has depleted it’s weapons stockpile to concerning levels just to give Trump a fireworks show. The US cannot afford to keep attacking Iran at anywhere near the pace they were before because they don’t have the capacity to replace what they’re firing in a timely manner.
Iran knows all of this. The longer they hold out, the more the pressure ramps up on Trump. Iran will kill as many of their own people as it takes to maintain order. Besides, All the war crimes the US has already committed in Iran has not endeared the population to America. Worse, Trump already hung the protesters out to dry in January and got tons of them killed. Anyone who thinks that Iran is going to imploded into regime change anytime soon is smoking the good stuff.
Till Christmas it will be over, you guys/s
Reuters,the mouthpiece of the empire.
So basically: “we are choking their economy” vs “they can still hold out for months”, sounds like both sides are confident and neither is actually blinking yet.
Until around the midterms…
I hate trump but if I was him this is great news and the obvious move
3-4 months would mean in could be done before mid term elections
Plenty of time for some high quality insider trading. US taxpayers and “regulators” don’t seem to mind 🙃
We will have 3-4 more month of all time highs in the market. Blockade on!!
With Trump’s corruption of the federal government, all federal reports are doubtful. I mean, after all, we’ve already won the war a half dozen times.
In about 2 months world oil reserves will start to bottom out, and oil rationing will become absolutely necessary. Iran’s oil production is already being slowed, and they will hit the ceiling of storage in about that time period as well. Oil producers in the region will also start nearing ceiling on storage, which causes real issues as rapidly slowing oil production can actually damage wells.
The Iranians themselves, as in the regular Persian people, not the IRGC and the Basij, are suffering, and will absolute continue to suffer horribly no matter how this shakes out. Destroying the elements of the government that we did in the manner that we did solidified control of the political structure in the hands of hardline Islamists who will vigorously oppress the people of Iran, and execute far more than they previously did. They are going to starve them, kill them by thirst, and demand obedience. The IRGC and Basij will continue to eat and drink just fine, ensuring that the actual military forces remain in condition to fight.
The orange haired chaos goblin stuck his whole ego in the hornets nest, got a lot of people killed, cost billions per day unnecessarily, and ultimately will be the cause of vast suffering.
Make no mistake, the IRGC and Basij are monsters, and need to be de-fanged and removed. The current method was absolutely stupid in the extreme.