China wants Taiwan intact and hopefully voluntarily. It’s a long game, maybe 20 or 30 years (unless the US does something phenomenally stupid).
ken_the_boxer on
Well, yes, if you tell them that you are ok with it..
YouCantSeeMe555 on
Anyone left still advising Trump is certainly either completely incompetent or a sniveling yes man.
Fookmaywedder on
Yeah yeah Chinas leader is crazy and egotistical like trump.
Idk why they put “fear” when trumps dumbass invaded and fucked up the worlds gas prices for everyone
Distinct_Cup_1598 on
*3 (max)
Samski877 on
The really worrying part is that more and more people in Washington seem to believe Xi views Taiwan less as a hypothetical future issue and more as part of his historical legacy.
And after watching Hong Kong lose its autonomy and Russia invade Ukraine, its hard to blame Taiwan for taking those threats extremely seriously now.
saurus-REXicon on
Giving trump time to think about how to grift off the Taiwanese.
Villag3Idiot on
We’ll know well in advance since the seas for the invasion route is only open for a short time every year and we’ll see both the troop and ship build up.
It won’t be a sudden surprise invasion.
nediamnori on
They will most likely wait until the Taiwan elections in 2028. If all goes their way they won’t need to invade it.
Otherwise-Green3067 on
I think they are still on course for 2027 but that’s just me
neversayalways on
– Most people and governments are convinced that the AI race will determine who is the next dominant superpower globally
– AI and almost all tech requires the semiconductors made nearly exclusively in Taiwan
– America has shown weakness, a disinterest in involving itself in global policing, and has depleted it’s military stockpile
– America and Israel have shown that you can illegally attack whoever you want without consequence, so long as you’re powerful enough
Why *wouldn’t* China move on Taiwan?
Captlard on
I think they will take a chunk of Eastern Russia first. Easier to do and the ownership there has been contentious over the eons.
stashtv on
Taiwan’s poison pill is their largest safeguard against invasion. When (not if) China can produce chips like Taiwan, then China DGAF about Taiwan’s poison pill.
Human-Departure-9717 on
They say this all the time. For the longest time it was 2027, which is the Davidson Window. The Davidson window was 2021-2027, and was criticized widely for being inaccurate and unlikely. Only for the US 2026 Annual Threat Assessment to come out and say it was extremely unlikely for it to happen in 2027, and that China has no fixed timeline for taking Taiwan. Its also a question of what that would look like. Do they do it politically? A long wait, which has been Chinas strategy as of yet? Do they blockade the Island? Or launch a full scale invasion? There’s different levels of “taking” Taiwan. And as someone who’s read on this extensively, the last people I’m going to listen to are Trump “Advisers”.
RogerCraigfortheHOF on
I’ll take the under.
Illustrious_Mail1171 on
Fear? They want it
Economy-Fee5830 on
Axios is really the mouthpiece of the government, isnt it.
Citycen01 on
Just like Israel, this is the administration they can take advantage to push their agenda, they know the US won’t step in, and may help them if they show pretty pictures to them.
thegameisafoooooot on
I don’t think they were waiting to get trumps permission.
IamGeoMan on
China is already winning in the diplomatic and economic arena. There’s no point in putting their own people in danger and uniting the SEA countries together.
Ha-Charade-You-Are on
Nah, Trump will hand Taiwan over before that
D00d_Where_Am_I on
Gona happen while Trump is in office obviously
Fickle-Maintenance-1 on
At some point you gotta consider news like this as just distractions… Every once in a while they go “China is about to invade Taiwan!!! Time to panic and ignore all other problems!”.
The US is currently attacking Iran, blockading Cuba, conducting extrajudicial execution of civilians by sinking fishing boats in the pacific, bombing half a dozen countries in the Middle East and Africa.
But hey CHINA IS GOING TO INVADING TAIWAN, don’t know look at what else is going on.
bssbronzie on
that’s been the same headline since 1949 zzzzz
bareboneschicken on
Since the original projection was 2027, the possibility of this happening as late as 2031 is an improvement.
supercali45 on
The real people carving up the Earth are the oligarchs
IkigaiMendokusai on
5 years is way too long. Try 2
OrneryZombie1983 on
Thanks, Obama
New-Equal8039 on
Why wouldn’t they? Trump’s conduct has given them the green light.
Fire_Z1 on
Well we know that Republicans will allow China to take Taiwan
32 Comments
The big three are just taking turns expanding.
China wants Taiwan intact and hopefully voluntarily. It’s a long game, maybe 20 or 30 years (unless the US does something phenomenally stupid).
Well, yes, if you tell them that you are ok with it..
Anyone left still advising Trump is certainly either completely incompetent or a sniveling yes man.
Yeah yeah Chinas leader is crazy and egotistical like trump.
Idk why they put “fear” when trumps dumbass invaded and fucked up the worlds gas prices for everyone
*3 (max)
The really worrying part is that more and more people in Washington seem to believe Xi views Taiwan less as a hypothetical future issue and more as part of his historical legacy.
And after watching Hong Kong lose its autonomy and Russia invade Ukraine, its hard to blame Taiwan for taking those threats extremely seriously now.
Giving trump time to think about how to grift off the Taiwanese.
We’ll know well in advance since the seas for the invasion route is only open for a short time every year and we’ll see both the troop and ship build up.
It won’t be a sudden surprise invasion.
They will most likely wait until the Taiwan elections in 2028. If all goes their way they won’t need to invade it.
I think they are still on course for 2027 but that’s just me
– Most people and governments are convinced that the AI race will determine who is the next dominant superpower globally
– AI and almost all tech requires the semiconductors made nearly exclusively in Taiwan
– America has shown weakness, a disinterest in involving itself in global policing, and has depleted it’s military stockpile
– America and Israel have shown that you can illegally attack whoever you want without consequence, so long as you’re powerful enough
Why *wouldn’t* China move on Taiwan?
I think they will take a chunk of Eastern Russia first. Easier to do and the ownership there has been contentious over the eons.
Taiwan’s poison pill is their largest safeguard against invasion. When (not if) China can produce chips like Taiwan, then China DGAF about Taiwan’s poison pill.
They say this all the time. For the longest time it was 2027, which is the Davidson Window. The Davidson window was 2021-2027, and was criticized widely for being inaccurate and unlikely. Only for the US 2026 Annual Threat Assessment to come out and say it was extremely unlikely for it to happen in 2027, and that China has no fixed timeline for taking Taiwan. Its also a question of what that would look like. Do they do it politically? A long wait, which has been Chinas strategy as of yet? Do they blockade the Island? Or launch a full scale invasion? There’s different levels of “taking” Taiwan. And as someone who’s read on this extensively, the last people I’m going to listen to are Trump “Advisers”.
I’ll take the under.
Fear? They want it
Axios is really the mouthpiece of the government, isnt it.
Just like Israel, this is the administration they can take advantage to push their agenda, they know the US won’t step in, and may help them if they show pretty pictures to them.
I don’t think they were waiting to get trumps permission.
China is already winning in the diplomatic and economic arena. There’s no point in putting their own people in danger and uniting the SEA countries together.
Nah, Trump will hand Taiwan over before that
Gona happen while Trump is in office obviously
At some point you gotta consider news like this as just distractions… Every once in a while they go “China is about to invade Taiwan!!! Time to panic and ignore all other problems!”.
The US is currently attacking Iran, blockading Cuba, conducting extrajudicial execution of civilians by sinking fishing boats in the pacific, bombing half a dozen countries in the Middle East and Africa.
But hey CHINA IS GOING TO INVADING TAIWAN, don’t know look at what else is going on.
that’s been the same headline since 1949 zzzzz
Since the original projection was 2027, the possibility of this happening as late as 2031 is an improvement.
The real people carving up the Earth are the oligarchs
5 years is way too long. Try 2
Thanks, Obama
Why wouldn’t they? Trump’s conduct has given them the green light.
Well we know that Republicans will allow China to take Taiwan
Next TWO years*