I predict that by the end of calendar year 2026, we’ll be seeing a decline of -15% to -25% nationally.
I think Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth will be affected not as badly as smaller capitals like Adelaide and Canberra as well as major regional centres where we could see -25% or worse.
AlamutJones on
I mean, if house prices fall then that‘s not a bad thing. We had major problems brewing with them being too high, that was the whole point
LordWalderFrey1 on
It’s either this or a genuine crash when the bubble cannot be sustained.
There is no other way to improve housing affordability. Either we wait for years or decades for income to catch up so that the current prices become affordable enough, or continue on with the housing crisis.
House prices were always too high and were juiced up by the concessions that encouraged speculation. No amount of new builds or cuts to immigration would have solved the issue if prices themselves didn’t come down.
The air needs to be let out of the bubble.
conorling on
“Proposed tax changes to capital gains and negative gearing announced in the federal budget last week fundamentally change the asset allocation decision for Australian households,” says Morgan Stanley chief economist Chris Read.
“This is particularly the case for housing: the previous model of high leverage, cash flow losses, and large expected capital gains is meaningfully challenged.
It’s hilarious seeing it laid out as plainly as this. Sure, it’s entirely the government’s fault that your planned investment “strategy” of getting yourself indebted up to your gills, losing money in the immediate term despite squeezing your tenants for all they’re worth, and selling a few years later with a massive profit despite having done nothing to the property other than own it it, isn’t going to be sustainable forever. Sorry folks, was good while it was going but the party’s over.
Nyarlathotep-1 on
Ooooft when two thirds of voters see their personal wealth smashed by this budget Labor will get absolutely, and quite rightly, spanked. This policy has been a spectacular misfire – even the teals are hiding under a rock on this one.
theHoundLivessss on
The people who own a $52 billion real estate empire are worried about a crackdown on hosuing investment and the associate decline in value. Shocker.
6 Comments
We are in a perfect storm.
Budget, RBA, APRA and geopolitical events.
I predict that by the end of calendar year 2026, we’ll be seeing a decline of -15% to -25% nationally.
I think Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth will be affected not as badly as smaller capitals like Adelaide and Canberra as well as major regional centres where we could see -25% or worse.
I mean, if house prices fall then that‘s not a bad thing. We had major problems brewing with them being too high, that was the whole point
It’s either this or a genuine crash when the bubble cannot be sustained.
There is no other way to improve housing affordability. Either we wait for years or decades for income to catch up so that the current prices become affordable enough, or continue on with the housing crisis.
House prices were always too high and were juiced up by the concessions that encouraged speculation. No amount of new builds or cuts to immigration would have solved the issue if prices themselves didn’t come down.
The air needs to be let out of the bubble.
“Proposed tax changes to capital gains and negative gearing announced in the federal budget last week fundamentally change the asset allocation decision for Australian households,” says Morgan Stanley chief economist Chris Read.
“This is particularly the case for housing: the previous model of high leverage, cash flow losses, and large expected capital gains is meaningfully challenged.
It’s hilarious seeing it laid out as plainly as this. Sure, it’s entirely the government’s fault that your planned investment “strategy” of getting yourself indebted up to your gills, losing money in the immediate term despite squeezing your tenants for all they’re worth, and selling a few years later with a massive profit despite having done nothing to the property other than own it it, isn’t going to be sustainable forever. Sorry folks, was good while it was going but the party’s over.
Ooooft when two thirds of voters see their personal wealth smashed by this budget Labor will get absolutely, and quite rightly, spanked. This policy has been a spectacular misfire – even the teals are hiding under a rock on this one.
The people who own a $52 billion real estate empire are worried about a crackdown on hosuing investment and the associate decline in value. Shocker.